DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 1/2 cent in the July contract and down 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans closed up 4 cents in the July and up 5 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3/4 cent in the July Chicago, up 1 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City and unchanged in the July Minneapolis.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 at 99.91. June gold is up $2.40 at $1,286.20 while May silver is down $0.14 and May copper is unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8 at 20,587. June crude oil is down $1.20 at $49.51. June heating oil is down $0.0250, June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0240, and June natural gas is down $0.054.

For the week:

July corn closed down 14 1/4 cents and December closed down 12 1/2 cents. July soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents while the November was down 2 1/4 cents. July Chicago wheat was down 21 3/4 cents, July Kansas City wheat was down 22 cents, and July Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.

Corn:

July corn ended down a half-cent Friday, benefiting from support near its March low while fundamental forces remain bearish. The main bearish concern for corn is Brazil's second crop and, so far, growing conditions have been favorable with fairly consistent showers in recent forecasts. Farther south, Argentina's Ag Ministry said 25% of the corn was harvested, roughly one week behind the usual pace, but helped by a drier forecast. Statistics Canada estimated Canada's corn planting will total 3.8 million acres in 2017, up 13% from a year ago. Here in the U.S., corn planting remains difficult in many areas, but the northern Midwest will get a break of drier weather the next few days, which should help. So far, prices are reflecting expectations that this year's corn crop will get planted, and that is keeping July corn under bearish pressure, challenging support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.22 Thursday, priced 36 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.23, keeping a fairly narrow trading range with potential for a volatile response after Sunday's election in France.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed 4 cents higher Friday, maintaining a small gain throughout most of the day with help from a $1.70 gain in July soybean meal. So far, soybean prices are holding above the low of last week's outside reversal, so the downtrend has paused, at least while fundamental factors remain heavily bearish. While Brazil's record soybean harvest is nearing completion, Argentina's Ag Ministry said 21% of its soybeans were harvested and a dry seven-day forecast gives them a green light for more progress. Similar to expectations for record soybean acres here in the U.S., Statistics Canada also estimated a record soybean planting of 7.0 million acres, up 27% from a year ago. Canola acres are also expected to set a record at 22.4 million, up 10% from a year ago. The anticipation of increased soybean supplies in 2017 continues to keep July soybeans under bearish pressure and it will be interesting to see if last week's low of $9.41 1/4 can hold. USDA did say early Friday that 5.4 million bushels (146,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.75 Thursday, priced 72 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed down 3/4 cent Friday and was down 21 3/4 cents on the week, finishing one cent above the old-contract low of $4.20. Ever since last month's wildfires in Kansas and Oklahoma, the southwestern Plains have seen several beneficial rains come through. This has helped to revive winter wheat crops and erase much of the drought concern that helped prices earlier in the year. Western Europe has been dry lately and merits watching, but most other wheat regions are doing well. Early Friday, Statistics Canada estimated all wheat planting at 23.2 ma in 2017, a little more than expected and roughly even with a year ago. Friday's news also included an early wheat production estimate from USDA for Australia of 24.0 million metric tons in 2017-18. If true, that would be down from the current season's estimate of 35.0 mmt and help ease the world's surplus. With no bullish arguments currently available in wheat, the July Chicago contract continues to trend lower, supported only by commercial bargain hunting. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.67 Thursday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in 2017. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.14 and at its lowest price in 2017.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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