DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was unchanged in the May contract and up 1/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 4 1/4 cents in the May contract and up 1 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 2 1/2 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 at 99.63. June gold is down $10.50 at $1,283.60 while May silver is down 10 cents and May copper is down $0.0045. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 86 at 20,434. June crude oil is down $2.19 at $50.66. June heating oil is down $0.0527 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0620 and June natural gas is up $0.048.

Corn:

May corn finished unchanged Wednesday, stuck in the middle of its sideways range and at roughly the same prices traded in November. On one hand, corn planting is off to a slow start in the U.S., where spring weather has been cool and wet. DTN's seven-day forecast expects more of the same the next ten days out, so there is a chance that some intended corn acres will eventually become soybean acres in areas that are slow to dry out. On the other hand, South America is on track for record corn production in 2016-17 and, so far, Brazil's second corn crop is doing well with more rain in this week's forecast. The anticipation of increased export competition this summer from down south is making it difficult for corn prices to show much of a spring rally. Wednesday morning, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said ethanol production increased from 986,000 to 993,000 barrels per day last week, while inventory increased from 22.9 million to 23.0 million barrels. U.S. corn demand continues to do well, but with more South American supplies likely on the way, May corn prices remain in a sideways range, above support at $3.54 1/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Tuesday, priced 36 cents below the May contract and within its sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 with the first round of France's election set for Sunday and the future of the European Union possibly on the line. A strong showing for Marine Le Pen, if it were to happen, would likely bolster the U.S. dollar and be a bearish influence for commodity prices, in general.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents Wednesday, adding to the late rebound in Tuesday's session with help from commercial buying in soybeans and bean oil. The fundamental arguments for soybeans remain lopsidedly bearish at this time with this spring's wet weather piling on a possibility that even more soybean acres may be planted in 2017, if fields don't dry early enough to accommodate corn planting. On the other hand, May soybeans are holding above the support of last week's outside reversal and commercials have shown willingness to go net long lately. Wednesday's commercial buying in soybean oil also goes along with support from anticipation that the U.S. government may eventually act to protect U.S. biodiesel prices from competing supplies in Argentina and Indonesia. May soybeans continue to trend lower under bearish pressure, but may be able to find at least temporary support at last week's low near $9.30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.74 Tuesday, priced 72 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents after a lackluster day of trading. The southwestern Plains are mostly dry for a couple days before another rain chance moves through on Friday. This year's winter wheat crop is not rated as high as a year ago, but seems to be doing fine overall in spite of this year's dry start and early spring weather. Outside the U.S., dry conditions in Europe are starting to get more attention, but wheat traders are not showing any signs of short-covering yet, while conditions in Ukraine and Russia are said to be favorable. May Chicago wheat has held sideways so far, but without a bullish argument, prices are challenging their lowest levels of 2017 and are in danger of falling lower. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.82 Tuesday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in over three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.30 and near its lowest price in over three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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