DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

May corn was down 1 cent, May soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents, and May Chicago wheat was up 3/4 cent. May corn and soybeans were lower early Tuesday with more rain on the weather map and investors generally showing a risk-averse start on the day. May Chicago wheat is slightly higher, helped by early commercial bargain-hunting.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

May corn was down a penny early Tuesday with heavy rains in the northern Plains and scattered showers around the southern Midwest. Late Monday, USDA said 6% of the corn crop was planted as of Apr. 16, down from the five-year average of 9%. It is still early, but with more rain expected in this week's forecast, especially for the eastern and southern Midwest, this year's corn planting remains a concern. DTN's seven-day forecast expects broad rain coverage over the Corn Belt with the heaviest amounts stretching from eastern Kansas to the mid-Atlantic. Brazil's second corn crop has chance for light to moderate showers this week, keeping crop conditions favorable. May corn continues to trade sideways with bearish pressure from the positive development of Brazil's second corn crop. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Monday, priced 36 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in five weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.44 with currency markets apt to be nervous this week ahead of the first round of France's presidential election on Apr. 23. Metals, energies, and Dow Jones futures are also lower early in what looks like the start of a "risk-off" day.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents early, falling back from last week's rally while fundamental concerns remain heavily bearish. Last fall's record U.S. harvest plus Brazil's record soybean harvest plus the anticipation of record U.S. plantings this spring turned soybean prices lower in late-February and the downtrend continues. This year's early wet spring is making corn planting difficult and adds to concerns that soybean plantings may increase later. On the other hand, soybean prices have fallen so far, that they have now attracted commercial buying and produced last week's outside weekly reversal -- two bullish clues of possible support discussed in Tuesday's DTN article "Soybeans Hint at Support." May soybeans remain in a downtrend with possible support near $9.30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.80 Monday, priced 73 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was up 3/4 cent Tuesday, helped by light commercial buying after prices fell back near their Mar. 31 lows on Monday. Late Monday, USDA said 19% of winter wheat was headed. 13% of winter wheat was rated poor to very poor, the same as a week ago while DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index increased from 131 to 133. This is not as high as last year's 146, but well above the five-year average of 106 and high enough to be bearish for wheat prices. USDA also said 13% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five-year average of 21%. DTN's seven-day forecast expects moderate to heavy rains in Kansas and Oklahoma, helping to keep drought concerns at bay. So far, May Chicago wheat continues to trade sideways with ongoing bearish pressure from a lack of serious threat to this year's wheat crops. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.81 Monday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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