DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1/2 cent in the May contract and down 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 1 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 4 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 8 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.31 at 100.64. June gold is up $21.00 at $1,274.90 while May silver is up 36 cents and May copper is up $0.0060. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 32 at 20,627. May crude oil is up $0.13 at $53.21. May heating oil is down $0.0040 while May RBOB gasoline is down $0.0077 and May natural gas is down $0.092.

Corn:

May corn closed down a half-cent Tuesday after USDA increased its estimate of Brazil's corn crop from 91.5 million metric tons to 93.5 mmt, a little more than expected. Argentina's corn crop was estimated at 38.5 mmt, up from 37.5 mmt a month ago. The increases put USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks at a slightly higher-than-expected 222.98 mmt or 21.4% of annual use. Here in the U.S. where 3% of the new-corn crop has been planted so far, USDA kept its estimate of old-crop ending corn stocks at 2.32 billion bushels, swapping out 50 million bushels of feed demand into the ethanol column. In spite of Tuesday's slightly bearish report numbers, May corn prices showed little reaction and continue to hold a sideways trend. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Monday, priced 37 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.31, falling back a second day with investors showing some nervousness about U.S. ships headed toward the Korean peninsula.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents Tuesday, a small bearish response to USDA's new record high estimate of 111.0 mmt for Brazil's soybean crop. The estimate for Argentina's crop was also increased from 55.5 mmt to 56.0 mmt and helped push world ending soybean stocks to a higher-than-expected 87.41 mmt for 2016-17. Domestically, USDA increased its estimate of ending soybean stocks from 435 million bushels to 445 mb, mainly due to a 19 mb reduction in the residual use estimate while both, crush and export estimates were kept unchanged. With record production coming out of South America once again, May soybeans remain in an obvious downtrend, but show hesitation at $9.37 1/4, the one-year low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.67 Monday, priced 75 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents, helped by noncommercial short-covering after traders ignored USDA WASDE numbers that were slightly bearish. USDA increased its estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks from 1.129 billion bushels to 1.159 bb, due largely to a 35 mb reduction in feed demand. The new ending stocks represented 51.8% of annual use, the most in 30 years. USDA's estimate of world ending stocks increased from 249.94 mmt to 252.25 mmt, due to a reduction in the world demand estimate for 2015-16 while the 2016-17 estimate was mostly unchanged. Late Monday, USDA said 9% of the winter wheat crop was headed, a little more than usual for this time of year. Thirteen percent of crops were rated poor or very poor, down from 14% last week. USDA also said 5% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five-year average of 11%, but not a significant concern this early in the season. With U.S. wheat supplies still abundant and no significant problems reported around the world, May Chicago wheat continues to trend sideways, holding above support at $4.16 1/2. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.88 Monday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.34 and up from its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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