DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Grains are mixed and quiet ahead of USDA's WASDE report, due out at 11 a.m. CDT. USDA's new South American crop estimates are likely to get the most attention Tuesday.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

May corn was down 3/4 cent early Tuesday, staying in a narrow overnight range ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report. USDA's estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks is not expected to change much, but we may see a boost in the estimate of Brazil's corn crop, currently at 91.5 million metric tons. So far, crop conditions have been favorable for Brazil's second crop, but this week's forecast is mostly dry from central Brazil all the way to Argentina. Here in the central U.S., the weather is mostly dry Tuesday with more rain expected later this week across the central and eastern Midwest. USDA said 3% of the corn has been planted so far, mostly in Texas, which is usual for this time of year. May corn appears to have found support at the March low of $3.54 1/4 and is trading sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Monday, priced 37 cents below the May contract and near its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.20, pulling back a second day from Friday's new three-week high.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were up 3/4 cent early Tuesday, holding a narrow, sideways range the past week in anticipation of USDA's WASDE report. As with corn, USDA's estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks is not likely to change much and more attention will likely be given to the estimate of Brazil's soybean crop. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to increase Brazil's estimate from 108.0 to 110.0 mmt, but it could go higher as there have been private estimates above 113.0 mmt. This week's drier forecast for Brazil and Argentina is also helpful for harvest progress after some areas experienced heavy rains over the weekend. May soybeans remain in a downtrend under bearish pressure but may have a better chance for finding support once traders get past the bearish anticipation of Tuesday's USDA report. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.67 Monday, priced 75 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in nearly a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was down 1 1/2 cents Tuesday with early commercial selling. Late Monday, USDA said 9% of the winter wheat crop was headed, a little more than usual for this time of year. Thirteen percent of crops were rated poor or very poor, down from 14% last week. USDA also said 5% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five-year average of 11%. DTN's seven-day forecast expects beneficial rains over the eastern side of the southwestern Plains while the western side stays drier -- a familiar pattern for the region. Thanks to commercial support, May Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the low $4s but has no reason to trade higher, while other wheat regions around the world are reporting no significant problems. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.88 Monday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Todd can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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