DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 7 3/4 cents in the May contract and down 3 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 1 1/2 cents in the May Kansas City and down 3 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.19 at 100.40. June gold is up $3.30 at $1,254.50 while May silver is down 3 cents and May copper is down $0.0470. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 66 at 20,597. May crude oil is down $0.25 at $50.35. May heating oil is down $0.0063 while May RBOB gasoline is down $0.0018 and May natural gas is down $0.047.

Corn:

May corn was up 3 1/2 cents Monday, benefiting from USDA's lower 90.0 million acre planting estimate a second day after prices showed a bullish reversal on Friday. Monday's weather map showed showers scattered around the central and eastern Midwest with heavier amounts and severe weather in the southeastern states. Overall, this is favorable for early spring conditions, although fieldwork is being interrupted in the South. In South America, crop conditions have been favorable but will be challenged by heavier rains expected this week in central Argentina. Monday morning, USDA said 58.1 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, keeping up this season's bullish pace, which has total inspections up 70% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders turned slightly bearish in corn with 23,190 contracts net short on March 28, just a few days before Friday's bullish reversal. Commercials returned to the long side for the first time in 2017 with 51,865 contracts net long. Technically, the trend in May corn remains down, but Friday's bullish reversal likely put an end to that. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Friday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.19 while nearly all other commodities than gold were lower.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 7 3/4 cents at their lowest close in nearly a year, continuing the bearish slide that began in late-February with an extra kick from Friday's record high planting estimate of 89.5 ma. It is not so much that the acres weren't expected, but more that bullish arguments are running out of ammunition with USDA's record 108.0 million metric ton crop estimate for Brazil being challenged by higher private estimates. Demand for soybeans is up from a year ago, something that even USDA's higher-than-expected soybean stocks confirmed Friday, but if the U.S. has another good year of growing weather, overall supplies are on track to increase again in 2017. USDA said early Monday that 24.4 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, much more than last year's 8.3 mb and putting the 2016-17 total up 12% from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders in soybeans cut back net longs for the sixth consecutive week and are down to 51,854 net longs as of March 28 -- a small bullish position. Commercials are also net long for the first time in a year, a fresh recognition of value as May prices fell to their lowest level since October. May soybeans continue to trend lower. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.71 Friday, priced 75 cents below the May contract and at its lowest price in nearly a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents Monday, supported by light commercial buying and Friday's estimate from USDA that 2017's all wheat plantings will be at their lowest in over a century. U.S. winter wheat crops received beneficial rains last week, which continued over the weekend and are falling on soft red winter wheat crops in Illinois on Monday. Even so, only lighter amounts are expected in the southwestern Plains this week and Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report is likely to show lower winter wheat ratings than what was seen a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials in Chicago wheat still bearish with 89,438 contracts net short as of Mar. 28. Commercials were net long 85,157 contracts, offering good support for prices in the low-$4s. Friday's reversal likely ended the downtrend for May Chicago wheat, but it will be difficult for prices to do any better than to maintain a sideways range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.85 Friday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.31 and up from its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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