DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 6 3/4 cents in the May contract and up 7 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed down 17 cents in the May and down 9 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents in the May Chicago, up 3 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City and down 9 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.09 at 100.19. June gold is up $3.90 at $1,251.90 while May silver is up $0.05 and May copper is down $0.0165. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 60 at 20,668. May crude oil is up $0.44 at $50.79. May heating oil is up $0.0183, May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0251, and May natural gas is down $0.005.

For the week:

May corn closed up 8 cents and December closed up 8 3/4 cents. May soybeans were down 29 3/4 cents while the November was down 23 cents. May Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents, May Kansas City wheat was down 7 1/2 cents, and May Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn reversed higher Friday, ending up 6 3/4 cents after USDA estimated corn plantings at 90.0 million acres for 2017, roughly a million less than expected. March 1 corn stocks totaled 8.62 billion bushels, a little more than expected, but also meant that corn demand hit a record high 8.32 billion bushels in the first half of 2016-17. Remember the planting estimates are early guesses, but if true, 90 ma at last year's yield produces a 14.4 bb crop, which is roughly 200 million bushels above USDA's early demand estimate for 2017-18. In other words, new-crop corn prices should find early support from Friday's numbers and the rest will depend largely on weather. December corn was in a gradual downtrend, but Friday's reversal may have put an end to that. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Thursday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.09 in a quiet day of trading.

Soybeans:

Nov. soybeans closed down 9 1/4 cents Friday, pressured by USDA's estimate that a record high 89.5 million soybean acres will be planted this spring, more than was officially expected, but not more than many feared. The relative attraction of soybeans' new-crop prices encouraging more acres have long been discussed and got a boost of support from USDA's survey. If true, 89.5 ma at last year's yield would result in a 4.6 bb soybean crop in the fall, which is roughly 400 mb more than USDA's early demand estimate for 2017-18. On top of this spring's record soybean crop from Brazil, that indeed would be a heavy load even for soybeans, but we have to remember that we are still a long way from all those 'ifs' materializing. USDA also said March 1 soybean stocks totaled 1.735 bb, which was a little more than expected, but also represented record demand in the first half of 2016-17. So far, November soybeans remain in a downtrend with enhanced bearish potential in Friday's USDA report. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.87 Thursday, priced 76 cents below the May contract and at its lowest price in five months.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat reversed higher Friday, ending up a nickel but was still down a half-cent on the week. USDA estimated 46.1 million wheat acres in 2017, just as expected and the smallest U.S. planting in over a century. The southwestern U.S. Plains was dealing with dry conditions before this week and may not be able to match last year's yield, so it is possible that we could be looking at the first U.S. wheat crop below two bb in six years. USDA also said March 1 wheat stocks totaled 1.655 bb, a little more than expected. Wheat demand through three quarters totaled 1.745 bb, the most in three years, but much more is needed. July Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, but may have found enough support from Friday's report to support prices. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.80 Thursday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in over two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.27 and at its lowest price in over two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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