DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 cent in the May contract and down 1 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 6 cents in the May contract and down 4 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 4 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 6 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City and up 1/4 cent in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.43 at 100.26. June gold is down $8.80 at $1,248.00 while May silver is down 6 cents and May copper is up $0.0030. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 73 at 20,732. May crude oil is up $0.95 at $50.46. May heating oil is up $0.0148 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0135 and May natural gas is down $0.044.

Corn:

May corn was down a penny Thursday, keeping a narrow, two-cent range ahead of Friday's Prospective Planting and March 1 Grain Stocks reports from USDA. As an analyst, it's always difficult to take a poll of planting intentions too seriously, but if acres come in between 90 million to 92 million, corn prices should not act surprised. March 1 corn stocks are expected at 8.55 billion bushels, which translates to a record disappearance of 8.39 bb in the first half of 2016-17. Personally, I prefer the under on the corn stocks guess as this has been an excellent season for corn demand. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 28.2 million bushes and 55.2 million bushels respectively, another bullish combination for the week. Even though sales were down from the previous week, total exports in 2016-17 are up 62% from a year ago with just over five months remaining. May corn remains in a gradual downtrend with short-term support in front of Friday's report. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.43, continuing to rebound after several Fed officials have been talking about more rate hikes ever since Monday's dollar fell to a new four-month low. May crude oil is up 95 cents a barrel, trading higher for a fourth consecutive day.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 6 cents Wednesday, falling to a new five-month low with ongoing bearish pressure coming from Brazil's record soybean harvest and favorable weather forecast. It is also fair to say that traders are feeling anxious about Friday's Prospective Plantings report from USDA. Dow Jones expects USDA to estimate soybean plantings at a record high 88.1 million acres, but there is room for the number to be even higher as the economics of corn and wheat are not looking so good in early 2017. If soybeans did not have enough bearish concerns to worry about, spot palm oil also fell to its lowest close in four months overnight, dragging May soybean oil down 0.20. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 25.0 mb and 35.0 mb respectively, a bullish combination that has total exports up 15% from a year ago. If we add in soybean sales that are outstanding, the total is up 25% from a year ago and supports the notion that we will see record soybean demand in the first half of 2016-17 in Friday's Grain Stocks report. USDA also added news Thursday that 6.1 mb (165,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2017-18. May soybeans continue to trend lower with plenty of bearish concerns ahead in 2017. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.93 Wednesday, priced 76 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in five months.

Wheat:

May Kansas City wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents Thursday at a new low for 2017. This week's rains across the central and Southern U.S. Plains have left the winter wheat crops in better shape and there is a chance that more rain may show up next week. Bullish hopes for wheat in 2017 were already fragile and it may take a while to recover from this week's timely disappointment while no international threats are showing on the radar yet. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 17.1 mb and 18.2 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination for the week. While all export business is welcome and needed for U.S. producers, this year's pace has not been fast enough to make a dent in supplies. A Dow Jones survey expects to see 1.62 bb of U.S. wheat on hand as of March 1, meaning that 48% of beginning supplies are still here with just three months left in the season. May Chicago and K.C. wheat both remain under bearish pressure and are trending lower. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.84 Wednesday, priced 42 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.32 and also up from its lowest price in over two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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