DTN Early Word Grains
Another Quiet Start as Bearish Tone Continues
May corn was down 1/4 cent, May soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents, and May Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all a little lower early once again, weighed down by favorable weather, available supplies, and a general lack of bullish motivation. Crude oil is trading lower after API reported another increase in last week's oil inventory.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 237.85 points at 20,668.01. The NASDAQ Composite was down 107.70 points at 5,793.83 and the S&P 500 was down 29.45 points at 2,344.02 Tuesday. DJIA futures were down 37 points early Wednesday morning. Asian markets were lower with Japan's Nikkei down 414.50 points (-2.1%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 272.71 points (-1.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 16.39 points (-0.5%). European markets were also lower Wednesday with London's FTSE 100 down 65.09 points (-0.9%), Germany's DAX down 91.70 points (-0.8%), and France's CAC 40 down 41.87 points (-0.8%). The U.S. dollar index was up 0.12 at 99.87 while the June euro was down 0.00200 at 1.08275. June 30-year T-Bonds were up 25/32nds at 150'22 while April gold was up $0.50 at $1,247.00. May crude oil was down $0.72 at $47.52 while Brent crude was down $0.80 at $50.16. Soybeans at the Dalian Exchange were steady to higher and Malaysian palm oil futures are up 0.6%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Corn demand continues to do well and U.S. corn remains attractively priced for more export business. | 1) | Record corn and soybean production from South America is widely anticipated in early 2017. |
| 2) | U.S. soybean prices are close enough to Brazil's prices that the U.S. continues to see moderate export business. | 2) | U.S. wheat supplies remain at their highest in decades. |
| 3) | So far, this year's crop ratings for winter wheat were lower than a year ago in the southwestern Plains, but there is rain in this week's forecast. | 3) | Outside of dryness in the southwestern Plains, no significant weather threats are anticipated yet for 2017. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN May corn is down a quarter-cent early Wednesday after quiet, overnight trade. South America's forecast continues to expect a broad coverage of light rain amounts across Brazil while northern Argentina expects light to moderate rain amounts. Here in the U.S., rain is expected in the central and southern Plains the next few days which will be especially beneficial for dry areas in Missouri and Arkansas. U.S. corn demand remains active and is helping to support prices near their lowest level in eleven weeks, but prospects of record supplies from South America continue to keep a bearish lid on prices. In outside markets, May crude oil is down 72 cents after the American Petroleum Institute said oil inventory was up 4.5 million barrels last week.
SOYBEANS May soybeans are down 1 1/2 cents early, still trading within the confines of last week's narrow range while Brazil's soybean harvest makes steady progress. May soybean oil is steady early with palm oil futures trading slightly higher. Brazil's soybeans are obviously a bearish influence on prices and there is no specific bullish argument to currently point to, but it remains impressive that May soybeans are still holding near $10.00. Demand remains the unknown factor and USDA's quarterly grains stocks report on Mar. 31 will provide the next clue of how much grain is moving. Meanwhile, May soybeans remain in a downtrend with prices stalling near $10.00.
WHEAT May Chicago wheat is down 2 1/4 cents early, pressured by light commercial selling and this week's forecast for rain throughout much of the central and southern U.S. Plains. The rain comes at a helpful time for winter wheat crops and should help shore up some of those sagging crop ratings, but there is still much to be learned about this year's crop. Outside the U.S., no significant problems are being reported, but it is still only March. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful, May Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, probing for support near its lowest prices in 2017.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.21 | -$0.02 | -$0.40 | May | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $9.24 | $0.02 | -$0.78 | May | $0.003 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.84 | -$0.03 | -$0.43 | May | $0.008 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.46 | -$0.07 | -$0.92 | May | $0.000 |
| HRS Wheat: | $4.97 | -$0.10 | -$0.41 | May | -$0.001 |
Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Todd can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\ToddHultman1
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