DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

May corn was down 1/2 cent, May soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents, and May Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cent. Among grain contracts, there was a little green sprinkled on wheat and soybean oil quotes, but not much elsewhere early Friday. Grains have a good chance of being neglected on a Friday preoccupied with parades, green beer, and basketball.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

May corn was down 1/2 cent early Friday within a narrow, overnight range. Corn has a chance for a small gain this week, but overall it has been difficult for prices to move higher while Brazil is on track for a record crop. The situation continues to be that the U.S. is enjoying increased demand while Brazil remains short on supplies until that second harvest comes in. Of course, there are still months to go and the crop will need cooperative weather, especially at pollination time in April. So far, crop conditions are good with light to moderate showers expected across Brazil in the week ahead. Technically, the trend in May corn turned lower last week, but prices are likely to hold sideways, thanks to active U.S. demand. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Thursday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in ten weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.02 with G20 members set to meet in Germany.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents early, staying close to $10.00 so far, but also contending with bearish pressure from Brazil's record harvest. DTN's seven-day forecast continues to give harvest activity a green light in Brazil, except for a chance of temporary rain delays at Brazil's southern ports. There seems to be no hurdle remaining in the way of Brazil's advancing supplies and U.S. exports have slowed, as they typically do this time of year. Brazil's FOB soybean prices are 9 cents a bushel cheaper than U.S. prices, still unusually close for this time of year and giving the U.S. a chance for more business. With Brazil's harvest still the dominant topic of conversation, May soybeans remain in a downtrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.24 Thursday, priced 78 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was up a quarter-cent early after a quiet overnight session. It is not uncommon for wheat prices to not move much through winter, but 2017 has already seen a modest correction from the lows of 2016 and this year's winter crops are being pushed into an early spring with temperatures in western Kansas expected to hit the 90s on Sunday. So far, DTN's seven-day outlook remains dry for the southwestern Plains and there is a chance for light showers in the extended forecast. If wheat prices get a significant boost in 2017, they will need help from regions outside the U.S., but so far, it is too early to make good assessments. In the meantime, May Chicago and K.C. wheat are both holding steady after closing at new five-week lows last week. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest in five weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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