DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents in the May and down 2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1/4 cent in the May Chicago, up 3 1/2 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 1 cent in the May Minneapolis.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 at 100.05. April gold is up $2.50 at $1,229.60 while May silver is up $0.08 and May copper is up $0.0160. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 41 at 20,976. April crude oil is up $0.10 at $48.85. April heating oil is up $0.0088, April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0109, and April natural gas is up $0.055.

For the week: May corn closed up 3 1/4 cents and December closed up 3 1/4 cents. May soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents while the November was down 6 1/4 cents. May Chicago wheat was down 4 1/4 cents, May Kansas City wheat was down 2 cents, and May Minneapolis wheat was up 10 1/2 cents.

Corn:

May corn closed up 1 1/2 cents Friday and was up 3 1/4 cents on the week -- a modest gain in the aftermath of last week's new eight-week low. The fact that corn traded within a 3 1/4-cent range pretty much tells us all we need to know about traders' interests in corn versus basketball on Friday. Corn prices remain trapped between bearish expectations for Brazil's new corn crop and the bullish season of corn demand being experienced here in the U.S. while Brazil's exportable supplies still remain low as a result of last year's dry weather. FOB corn prices still favor exports going to the U.S. by a wide margin, which means that USDA's quarterly report of grain stocks should show a decent pace of disappearance in the first half of 2016-17. The next event to watch will be Brazil's weather during pollination in April. Technically, the trend in May corn is down, but prices are likely to keep chopping sideways while demand is active. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Thursday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in 10 weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.14, showing no reaction to President Donald Trump's meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel or Friday's G20 meeting.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents at $10.00, ending the week down 6 1/2 cents as Brazil's harvest continues to make good progress with more favorable weather expected in the week ahead. Earlier this week, Brazil's harvest progress was pegged at 56% complete and, on Friday, the private firm, Safras & Mercado estimated the soybean harvest at 94% complete in Brazil's largest producer, Mato Grosso. With USDA estimating Brazil's soybean exports at 2.24 billion bushels in 2016-17, that is a lot of supply to compete with, but so far U.S. soybean prices remain cheap enough to keep winning decent business. So far, Brazil's harvest pressure is keeping the trend in May soybeans pointed down, but prices are staying close to $10.00, thanks to this year's increased world demand. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.24 Thursday, priced 78 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in four months.

Wheat

May Chicago wheat closed up a quarter-cent Friday and was down 4 1/4 cents on the week, but is still holding a small gain in 2017 with plenty of uncertainty about the next winter wheat crop. DTN's seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the southwestern Plains with temperatures expected to reach the 90s in western Kansas on Sunday. There may be a chance for light showers the following week, but just how much is not yet clear. With early crop ratings down from a year ago, lower yields seem likely in 2017, but there is still time for that to change and we don't know yet how the rest of the world will do. So far, the trends in May Chicago and K.C. wheat remain down, but sideways trading seems more likely this early in the new season. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Thursday, priced 44 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in six weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.69 and up from its lowest price in five weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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