DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the May contract and up 3/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents in the May contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 4 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 7 3/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.63 at 100.95. April gold is up $7.40 at $1,210.00 while May silver is up 20 cents and May copper is up $0.0300. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90 at 20,927. April crude oil is up $0.91 at $48.63. April heating oil is up $0.0153 while April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0002 and April natural gas is up $0.030.

Corn:

May corn closed up 1 1/4 cents in a quiet day of trading with a slight hint of buying interest near May corn's lowest prices in 10 weeks. The demand side of corn continues to support prices above their 2017 low, and that should continue while U.S. corn prices remain roughly 40 cents a bushel (or more) cheaper than FOB prices in Brazil. Ethanol demand for corn also continues to run at a high pace. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said ethanol production increased from 1.022 million to 1.045 million barrels per day last week while inventory slipped from 22.9 million to 22.8 million barrels. On the bearish side, Brazil and Argentina continue to expect record harvests, and this week's forecast expects beneficial showers for Brazil's newly planted second crop of corn. Technically, the trend has turned lower in May corn, but prices still remain supported above their 2017 low of $3.57 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Tuesday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in 10 weeks. In outside markets, it may seem odd to read that the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.63 after the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target a quarter-percent, but traders seem more concerned that the Fed's language still sounds cautious, expecting gradual increases ahead.

Soybeans:

May soybeans tried early to break the string of seven consecutive losses, but ended lower an eighth day, down 1 1/4 cents with ongoing pressure from Brazil's harvest and a bearish crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA estimated February's soybean crush at 142.8 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago and less than was expected. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.77 billion pounds at the end of February, more than was expected. Prices showed no significant response when the report was released, so the numbers were not a big surprise, but they do reinforce the current bearish tone. Meanwhile, Brazil's harvest continues to make good progress with no significant hurdles seen other than a chance for rain delay this week at southern ports. May soybeans continue to trend lower, under harvest pressure with no sign of let-up yet. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.21 Tuesday, priced 79 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents, helped by light commercial buying and dry conditions in the southwestern Plains. DTN's seven-day forecast continues to look dry with an outside chance of showers two to three weeks out, but that is still a gamble. This weekend's temperatures have a chance of hitting 90 degrees Fahrenheit in western Kansas, and that may get traders' attention, but prices are likely to keep chopping sideways until we know more about the next winter wheat crop. Outside the U.S., there are no major problems cited, but it is easy to forget that this is only mid-March -- there is plenty of time yet for weather to have its say. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.86 Monday, priced 45 cents below the May contract and at its lowest close in five weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.49 and at its lowest price in five weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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