DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Fertilizer prices were still on the rise the first week of March 2017, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the seventh consecutive week prices have moved higher.

For the third week in a row, all eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier, though none were up by a significant amount. This is the second consecutive week prices saw only slight increases.

DAP had an average price of $436 per ton, MAP $460/ton, potash $336/ton and urea $361/ton. 10-34-0 had an average price of $441/ton, anhydrous $503/ton, UAN28 $246/ton and UAN32 $279/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

Retail fertilizer prices have been on the rise in recent months, but prices are still lower than 2016 levels, an ag economist points out.

In a post from March 13 titled "2017 Fertilizer Prices Turn Higher -- Still Lower than 2016" written by David Widmar on the Agricultural Economic Insight website, Widmar makes the case that even with the recent increase, crop farmers could still see fertilizer savings in the 2017 growing season.

Widmar said using the USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost report, anhydrous prices have jumped $41 per ton, or 8%, higher since the first week of January. Urea prices have also increased about $61 per ton, or 19% higher.

Prices for phosphorus (p) and potassium (k) have also shown some increases during this time, he writes.

"The prices of DAP has increased nearly 3% since January lows while potash has climbed 12% since August 2016," Widmar wrote.

The uptick in urea prices relative to anhydrous prices has shifted the price ratio of these two products. Urea is 1.23 times (or 123%) the price of anhydrous, which is higher than the price ratio in the fall of 2016 (below 1.10) and is above the eight-year average of 1.20.

This change has made urea even more expensive than anhydrous on a per-unit of nitrogen basis. Widmar said producers should carefully consider their options and local prices as they finalize fertilizer decisions.

Even with increasing retail fertilizer prices, Widmar does point out prices are still below 2016. Using a 180-70-70 (pounds per acre) nutrient blend (anhydrous, DAP and potash), the author observes that the price for this blend in March 2017 is fairly inexpensive compared to past years.

"The current fertilizer expense for this rate is $100 per acre, $12 lower than in 2016 and the lowest of the last eight years," he wrote. "In 2013, the same nutrient application would have cost $163 per acre."

To read the entire report, go to http://ageconomists.com/….

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Only three of the eight major fertilizer are double digits lower.

10-34-0 is 22% lower from a year ago, UAN32 is 11% less expensive and potash is 10% less expensive. DAP is 9% less expensive, both MAP and anhydrous is 7% lower, UAN28 is 6% less expensive and urea is 5% compared to year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Mar 7-11 2016	477	494	372	378
Apr 4-8 2016	480	504	369	387
May 2-6 2016	475	502	366	385
May 30-June 3 2016	473	499	363	375
June 27-July 1 2016	468	495	358	365
July 25-29 2016	459	492	356	356
Aug 22-26 2016	451	468	330	330
Sept 19-23 2016	443	453	319	323
Oct 17-21 2016	436	452	313	317
Nov 14-18 2016	436	445	315	327
Dec 12-16 2016	433	443	320	333
Jan 9-13 2017	432	441	320	338
Feb 6-10 2017	431	448	330	354
Mar 03-10 2017	436	460	336	361
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Mar 7-11 2016	562	541	262	312
Apr 4-8 2016	561	586	272	315
May 2-6 2016	560	589	274	321
May 30-June 3 2016	559	579	268	313
June 27-July 1 2016	554	566	266	304
July 25-29 2016	543	545	257	304
Aug 22-26 2016	502	515	234	280
Sept 19-23 2016	470	494	225	271
Oct 17-21 2016	453	475	224	265
Nov 14-18 2016	445	466	219	256
Dec 12-16 2016	444	463	219	257
Jan 9-13 2017	437	467	222	258
Feb 6-10 2017	440	485	238	273
Mar 03-10 2017	441	503	246	279

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/SK)

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