DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

May corn was down 2 cents, May soybeans were down 1/2 cent, and May Chicago wheat was down 3 3/4 cents. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA reported 4.4 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all lower early Monday, continuing last week's bearish slide as conditions in South America remain favorable. Most other commodities are starting the day higher.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

May corn was down 2 cents early Monday, continuing the tone of last week's bearish slide as South America's weather keeps looking favorable for crop development. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still bullish in corn as of Mar. 7 with 198,890 contracts net long, up 4,443 from the previous week. While traders' show of support has helped prices in early 2017, the concern is that their net-longs will now become a source of selling, pressured by the current price decline. On the demand side, prices continue to favor U.S. export business and Monday's inspections report should show another week of bullish export data for corn. The trend in May corn remains down after Friday's new eight-week low. There were 49 deliveries of March corn early Monday with 1,607 contracts still open ahead of Tuesday's expiration for March grain futures. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.23 Friday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and at a new five-week low. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.05 while most other commodities are starting higher.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA reported 4.4 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. May soybeans were down a half-cent early, still showing the bearish strain of Brazil's advancing harvest which should now be past the half-way mark. On Friday, the private firm, Safras & Mercado said the soybean harvest is 88% complete in Mato Grosso. DTN's seven-day forecast expects light to moderate showers across Brazil and moderate amounts in northeastern Argentina -- all of which is generally favorable for Brazil's soybean harvest progress and loading at ports. U.S. export business has showed signs of slowing as typically happens this time of year and Monday's inspections report should show more of the same. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish, but gradually cutting back on positions. As of March 7, noncommercials were net long 143,379 contracts, down 4,813 from the previous week. Last week's new eight-week low turned the trend lower for May soybeans and likely pressured noncommercials into more selling. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.27 Friday, priced 80 cents below the May contract and at a new 8-week low. Among March contracts, there were 193 soybeans, 90 meal, and 209 bean oil delivered early Monday.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was down 3 3/4 cents early Monday, also continuing the downward correction we saw last week as wheat prices continue to vacillate between concerns of heavy supplies on one hand and concerns of dry weather in the southwestern Plains on the other. Eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas received some rain over the weekend, but the rest of the southwestern Plains remains dry with no significant rain expected in DTN's seven-day forecast. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish Chicago wheat with 26,482 contracts net short as of March 7. Commercials remain a source of support, holding 25,816 contracts net long. Technically, May Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend, but is close to challenging support at $4.33. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Friday, priced 45 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in eight months. Among March contracts, trading in wheat is nearly done and there were 12 deliveries of Chicago wheat early Monday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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