DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices were still on the rise the last two days of February and first three days of March 2017, though at a slower rate than in previous weeks, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This is the sixth consecutive week prices have moved higher.

For the second week in a row, all eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier, though none were up by a significant amount.

DAP had an average price of $436 per ton, MAP $458/ton, potash $335/ton and urea $361/ton. 10-34-0 had an average price of $440/ton, anhydrous $502/ton, UAN28 $246/ton and UAN32 $279/ton.

One interesting note is with anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer was back above $500 per ton for the first time since the first week of September 2016 when the price was $502/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

In a mid-February Kansas State University (KSU) AgManager.info online newsletter titled "Predicting Fertilizer Prices," Gregg Ibendahl, KSU ag economist, attempts to find where the retail fertilizer price could be in the near future. The news is not good news for fertilizer buyers.

"Anhydrous ammonia is positively correlated with the corn price and the price of oil because these two products represent something about the demand and supply of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer," Ibendahl wrote. "Economic theory tells us that higher prices for an output will cause producers to produce more by using more of the production inputs. Thus, higher corn prices lead to more nitrogen fertilizer per corn acre."

Looking forward into 2017, farmers are likely to see some increases in fertilizer prices due to higher oil prices, he wrote. With oil prices already around $52 a barrel and the future market indicating mid-summer prices could be in the mid-$50s, a $15 increase in oil prices could add another $30 per ton to anhydrous ammonia prices by fall.

Ibendahl wrote that the other part of the price forecast is whether corn prices increase. A 10-cent-per-bushel change in the national corn price will move the predicted anhydrous ammonia price $4.74 per ton higher, he wrote.

"Other fertilizers are likely to increase during the course of 2017 as well, as there is a strong positive correlation between anhydrous ammonia prices and other fertilizer types," he wrote.

The entire post can be found at https://www.agmanager.info/….

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Only three of the eight major fertilizer are double digits lower.

10-34-0 is 22% lower from a year ago while UAN32 and potash are both 10% less expensive. DAP is 9% less expensive, both MAP and anhydrous is 7% lower, UAN28 is 6% less expensive and urea is 4% compared to year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	476	492	373	374
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	478	501	370	386
Apr 25-29 2016	476	502	366	386
May 23-27 2016	476	501	365	381
June 20-24 2016	470	495	358	366
July 18-22 2016	464	493	357	357
Aug 15-19 2016	452	471	333	337
Sept 12-16 2016	444	458	320	324
Oct 10-14 2016	438	452	313	316
Nov 7-11 2016	429	4049	314	323
Dec 5-9 2016	434	443	318	333
Jan 2-6 2017	431	442	322	339
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017	430	448	329	353
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017	436	458	335	361
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	566	537	260	309
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	561	580	268	315
Apr 25-29 2016	560	587	274	321
May 23-27 2016	560	587	274	321
June 20-24 2016	554	567	265	305
July 18-22 2016	546	546	260	304
Aug 15-19 2016	513	516	238	285
Sept 12-16 2016	474	496	233	272
Oct 10-14 2016	454	475	224	264
Nov 7-11 2016	447	468	217	256
Dec 5-9 2016	445	463	219	257
Jan 2-6 2017	436	465	218	255
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017	439	482	236	270
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017	440	502	246	279

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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