DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/4 cents in the May contract and down 1 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1/4 cent in the May contract and down 1/4 cent in the November. Wheat closed up 5 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 2 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 5 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.13 at 101.67. April gold is up $0.90 at $1,227.40 while May silver is up 10 cents and May copper is down $0.0440. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 42 at 20,964. April crude oil is down $0.13 at $53.20. April heating oil is up $0.0118 while April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0205 and April natural gas is up $0.078.

Corn:

May corn closed down 2 1/4 cents Monday, unwilling to challenge its February high on a day when little news is happening to help prices. The eastern U.S. Midwest is benefitting from light showers Monday and more rain is expected in the southeastern U.S. the next seven days. In South America, DTN's forecast for this week is mostly favorable, except for a chance of heavy rains disrupting harvest in southern Brazil. Monday morning, USDA said 56.9 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, maintaining a bullish pace in 2016-17 that should lead USDA to a higher export estimate someday -- possibly in Thursday's WASDE report. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders becoming increasingly bullish with 194,447 contracts net long on Feb. 28, the largest gathering of net longs since July 2016. If Brazil's second corn crop comes in as big as expected, those trader positions may eventually become a bearish source of selling. For now, May corn continues to trend gradually higher with Brazil's second crop still months away. There were 219 contracts of March corn and 20 contracts of March ethanol delivered early Monday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.39 Friday, priced 42 cents below the May contract and near its highest price in eight months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index and April gold showed little change after the Washington Post reported that North Korea fired four missiles into the sea between Korea and Japan on Monday morning. May cotton, on the other hand, achieved a new closing contract high, thanks to this year's increased demand.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 1/4 cent after a day of trading both sides, but not really going anywhere. DTN's forecast for this week expects only light showers across central Brazil and heavier amounts in southern Brazil where harvest will likely be interrupted. Overall however, Brazil's soybean shipments are up from a year ago in spite of wet areas, and that active pace is likely continue to keep prices under bearish pressure. USDA said early Monday that 36.3 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that has total inspections up 12% from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders staying bullish with 148,192 contracts net long as of Feb. 28 and with longs representing 74% of all noncommercial positions. May soybean prices continue to defy bearish expectations from increased supplies in Brazil and are holding a sideways range above last week's low of $10.17. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.57 Friday, priced 81 cents below the May contract and also holding within a sideways range. Among March contracts, there were 506 soybeans, 253 meal, and 444 bean oil delivered early Monday.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up a nickel Monday, supported by red flag warnings of dangerously dry and windy conditions in the southwestern Plains. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm this week and continue to bring about an unusually early spring response from winter wheat crops. USDA said Monday that 19.7 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, a neutral-to-bearish showing that continues to raise questions about USDA's decision to raise wheat's export estimate in February's WASDE report. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials slightly bearish again with 23,516 contracts net short on Feb. 28, up 15,189 from the previous week. Even though U.S. wheat supplies remain burdensome, May Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend with ongoing concerns about how this spring's winter wheat crop will fare. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.06 Friday, priced 47 cents below the May contract and near its highest price in eight months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.75 and was near its highest price in eight months. Early Monday, March wheat deliveries totaled 395 in Chicago and 121 in Minneapolis with dwindling open interest for all three.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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