DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents in the Mary contract and down 3/4 cent in the November. Wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 10 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 5 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.05 at 101.14. April gold is down $0.10 at $1,258.20 while May silver is down 1 cent and May copper is up $0.0005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10 at 20,831. April crude oil is up $0.19 at $54.18. April heating oil is up $0.0069 while April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0074 and April natural gas is down $0.100.

Corn:

May corn closed down 2 1/2 cents Monday with ongoing pressure from favorable crop conditions in South America. The private firm, Safras & Mercado estimated the second corn planting at 79% completed in Mato Grosso, Brazil. DTN's seven-day forecast expects light to moderate rain amounts in both, Brazil and Argentina, favorable for crop development. On the demand side, USDA said early Monday that 57.5 million bushels of U.S. corn were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that has total inspections up 75% in 2016-17 from a year ago. So far, noncommercial traders have ignored the bearish potential of South America's next crops and are staying bullish with CFTC showing 172,938 contracts net long as of Feb. 21, the most since July 2016. May corn's gradual uptrend appears to be flattening with prices getting closer to testing support at the six-week low of $3.63. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Friday, priced 44 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in seven months. In outside markets, livestock were higher, but most other commodities are lower. The March U.S. dollar index is quiet, trading up 0.05.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents Monday, pulled lower by a 1.8% overnight drop in May palm oil futures and by ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil. The private firm, Safras & Mercado estimated Brazil's soybean harvest at 34% complete on Friday with Mato Grosso 66% finished. DTN's seven-day forecast remains favorable for further harvest progress with only light-to-moderate showers expected. With more supplies on the way, U.S. export business has been tapering off and saw last week's inspections drop from 39.6 million bushels to 25.9 mb. Total inspections are still up 12% from a year ago, but the seasonal decline has begun. Meanwhile, noncommercial traders still remain bullish in soybeans with Friday's CFTC data showing 166,769 net longs on Feb. 21, down 9,552 from the previous week. Since May soybeans made a new six-week low on Thursday, those same noncommercials are likely feeling pressure to liquidate. May soybeans are currently trending lower with possible support at $10.00, near the low for 2017. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.38 Friday, priced 87 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents Monday, showing no concern about the weekend's cold temperatures in the southwestern Plains. As mentioned before, winter wheat crops are known for their resilience, having bounced back from cold weather before. This week's weather will be milder and mostly dry -- a small concern this early in the season, which is not significant enough to counter the bearish influence of plentiful U.S. wheat supplies. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders roughly neutral in Chicago wheat with 8,327 contracts net short as of Feb. 21, something that has not been seen since August 2015. The early rally of 2017 has brought more balance in trader positions and is likely to set prices on a sideways-to-lower path in March while we wait to learn more about 2017's crops. First notice day for March grains comes on Tuesday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Friday, priced 53 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.56 and down from its highest price in seven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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