DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

May corn was unchanged, May soybeans were up 4 cents, and May Chicago wheat was down 1 1/2 cents. May soybeans were up 4 cents while corn was steady and wheat a little lower at the morning break after USDA released its early estimates for 2017-18. USDA's weekly report of export sales was bullish for corn and soybeans, and neutral for wheat.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

May corn was steady early with winter storms in the Midwest and a blizzard warning in northern Iowa. Warmer temperatures are expected to return early next week and DTN's seven-day forecast has moderate to heavy chances for precipitation east of the Mississippi River, but is mostly dry in the western Plains. Early Friday, USDA estimated 2.215 billion bushels of U.S. ending corn stocks for 2017-18, based on 14.065 billion bushels of production and a yield of 170.7 bushels an acre. Compared to where we now stand, this is a neutral early guess that still has a long way to go and also has more bearish potential if we get a fifth consecutive year of good weather. USDA also said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 29.3 and 47.5 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination for the week that has total exports up 66% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Technically, May corn remains in an uptrend, but may be levelling out with growing concerns about South America's next crops. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.29 Thursday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in seven months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.35 while other commodities are mixed.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were up 4 cents with light early support in both, soybean meal and oil creating at least a pause after five consecutive days of selling. USDA's Ag Forum released its 2017-18 estimates for soybeans early Friday and kept the estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks unchanged at 420 million bushels. Production was set at 4.18 billion bushels based on a yield of 48.0 bushels an acre. As with corn, good weather has potential to inflate those supply numbers higher, but for now, the price outlook for soybeans is neutral from where we currently stand. USDA also said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 15.2 and 38.7 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination that has total exports up 16% in 2016-17 from a year ago. After four months of trending gradually higher, Thursday's new six-week low in May soybeans has now turned the trend lower. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.38 Thursday, priced 74 cents below the March contract and a new six-week low.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was down 1 1/2 cents early Friday, not showing much concern about the forecast for temperatures to dip into the teens as far south as the Texas Panhandle on Saturday morning. Wheat has survived worse and the cold spell is not expected to last long. Earlier Friday, USDA gave wheat a slightly less bearish outlook, predicting 905 million bushels of ending stocks in 2017-18, based on 1.837 billion bushels of production and a yield of 47.1 bushels an acre. The planting estimate of 46.0 million acres is the lowest on record and helps keep supplies down, but good weather still has the ability to counter the modest decline in supplies. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 16.6 and 23.1 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination for the week with total exports now up 28% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Technically, May Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend, but appears to be losing momentum. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.02 Thursday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in seven months.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter@ToddHultman1

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