DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a series of weak ridges and troughs extending from Alaska across northwest and north-central Canada and the polar vortex between northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western U.S. A ridge over the south-central and northeast U.S. and a trough over Florida.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over eastern Siberia. A trough over Alaska. The polar vortex over Canada and a ridge over eastern Greenland. This will be colder pattern for much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the eastern pacific and western U.S. A trough over the northeast U.S. and some ridging over the gulf states and Gulf of Mexico.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...98 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW WED...6 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...SAVANNAH GA 2.08 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. I am using a blend between the models today.

An upper level trough moves from the northern plains across the Midwest region early in the outlook period. A secondary trough moves from central Canada into the Great Lakes region late in the period. The cold fronts and surface low pressure systems associated with these troughs do not appear to have much moisture associated with them. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period with warmer weather ahead of each trough and somewhat colder weather following. However, even the colder weather behind each systems does not look to be very cold.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days out feature upper level ridging and above normal heights aloft over the western US. This likely suggests a welcome break to the winter time storms that have been hammering the west coast this season.

A mean trough covers the eastern US on these maps but a weak southern branch trough over western Mexico anchors the southern jet stream and prevents the northern trough from digging too far to the south over the eastern US. This southern trough may mean some chance for rain in the Texas/Louisiana area but this is uncertain. To the north we see the polar vortex split between 3 centers. The strongest of these troughs is over north-central Canada mostly northwest and north of Hudson Bay. There is also a trough located over the northwest Gulf of Alaska and another trough south of Greenland extending into the Atlantic. Significant cold associated with these centers would mainly occur west and a little south of the north-central Canada trough. Somewhat colder weather may carry south into the Great Lakes region for brief periods.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow and impact travel, transport and livestock during Thursday into Friday from Wyoming, west and north Nebraska and southern South Dakota to Minnesota, west and north Wisconsin and including northwest Iowa. A blizzard watch has been issued for southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota due to the risk of high winds and snow in these locations mainly tonight and early Friday.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): There should be mostly favorable soil moisture for the crop in the southern plains when it breaks dormancy in the spring due to heavy rains in early January and additional rain during the winter favoring southern areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): Somewhat hotter weather for a time in the central growing belt is not overly concerning for developing crops, especially after recent heavy rainfall. Highs around 100F (38C) in southwest growing areas increases stress to crops for a time but this should break during the coming weekend with an increased chance for thundershowers.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable conditions for maturing and harvesting soybeans in central Brazil and for filling soybeans in southern Brazil.

Favorable conditions for planting and developing second crop corn in west-central Brazil.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture has been recharged this winter after drought conditions in southern areas last fall.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Thunderstorms with heavy rain have been reported in the region since the weekend. This will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops and is mostly favorable, except in areas of local flooding or severe weather. Maize is likely reproductive to filling at this time.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats at this time. Prior cold weather occurred during periods when snow cover should have protected the crop from damage.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A significant rain event spread needed moisture to the winter wheat areas of Pakistan and India late in January. This should supplement irrigation for the crop likely jointing to possibly early reproductive at the time and will be considered favorable. However, an early season ridge has set up over central India. This may mean hot temperatures for south and east wheat areas..increasing the risk to any late developing crops in those areas.

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON): Episodes of extreme heat and dry weather is reported to have increased the risk to non-irrigated sorghum in New South Wales and southern Queensland. There has also been some increase in stress to irrigated cotton due to episodes of extreme heat and dryness during the mid-summer period. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers developed during the 4 day weekend period... improving conditions for developing sorghum and cotton.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast...

West: Snow, ice and rain develop later today and continues into Friday. Dry Saturday. Precipitation totals are expected to average 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier. Snowfall of 5-10 inches and locally heavier is expected from Wyoming, west and north Nebraska and southern South Dakota through southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Snow of 1-4 inches elsewhere in north Iowa with this system. Snow may combine with strong winds to produce blizzard conditions in northwest areas tonight and early Friday. Temperatures average above normal today but it should turn colder tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Chance for light precipitation favoring southern and eastern areas during Tuesday. Temperatures average near normal Sunday, above normal again Monday and Tuesday.

East: Light to moderate rain or showers develops through northwest and north east later today or during tonight. Rain changes to heavy snow for a time in west and north Wisconsin tonight or during Friday, rain or showers elsewhere in the north and east areas during Friday. Drier Saturday. Precipitation totals average 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier through northern and eastern areas, less than 0.25 inch through the southwest. Snowfall in west and north Wisconsin may reach 4-8 inches and locally heavier. Temperatures average well above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Dry early Sunday. Light to locally moderate precipitation develops later Sunday and continues into Monday. This activity favors south and east areas.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through eastern areas, near to below normal through the west.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Light to moderate precipitation is expected today and tonight in southern Nebraska and extreme northern areas of Kansas. This should be rain at first but may change to snow before ending. Heavy snow is expected in areas of west and north Nebraska with this system that area mostly outside of the major winter wheat areas. Drier elsewhere in the region. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above to mostly well above normal today, colder Friday and Saturday.

Chance for mostly light to locally moderate showers through southeast areas Sunday through Tuesday. Little elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Brazil (Soybeans)

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in northwest and central RGDS during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only isolated activity elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 89-95F (31-35C).

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier today.

Showers may linger in the north, drier south, during Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures turn somewhat cooler during this period.

A few showers and thundershowers may occur in east and north Parana Sunday and Monday. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias.

Summary: Dry or with only isolated shower activity during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 91 to 95F (33-35C).

Forecast: Isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers today. Scattered afternoon or evening showers and thundershowers Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

Episodes of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers Sunday through Tuesday. These may tend to favor Mato Grosso and Goias during this time. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry or with only isolated thundershowers in extreme eastern areas of Buenos Aires during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged slightly above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Dry or with only isolated thundershowers in northern Buenos Aires today. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal during this period. Highs mostly 91 to 99 F (33-37 C) each day.

Mostly dry Sunday. A few showers and thundershowers may develop in Cordoba during Monday. A few light showers with locally heavier Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average above normal Sunday but they should moderate somewhat Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Light showers with isolated heavy showers in south and east Buenos Aires during the past 24 hours. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal, well above normal in the west. Highs yesterday ranged from 87 to 101F (31-39C)...hottest in La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. A few showers and isolated thundershowers during Friday, possibly favoring the southern Buenos Aires area. A few light showers with locally heavier Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures above to much above normal during this period. Highs today likely range between 91 and 102F (33-39C).

Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers favor southwest areas Sunday and Monday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers during Tuesday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal early in this period, above to near normal late in the period.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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