DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 cent in the March contract and up 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents in the March contract and down 3 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 5 3/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 3 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City and down 5 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.45 at 101.40. April gold is down $1.10 at $1,238.00 while March silver is down 4 cents and March copper is up $0.0345. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96 at 20,720. April crude oil is up $0.69 at $54.47. April heating oil is up $0.0163 while April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0071 and April natural gas is down $0.245.

Corn:

March corn closed up a penny in spite of Tuesday's export news. USDA said 45.4 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that has total inspections up 74% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA also announced 15.0 million bushels (380,496 metric tons) of U.S. corn sales early Monday, but then corrected the amount later in the afternoon to just 4.4 million bushels (111,200 mt) of U.S. corn sold to unknown for 2016-17. With FOB corn prices roughly 38 cents a bushel cheaper in the U.S. than in Brazil, U.S. exports should continue to do well. Friday's CFTC data showed a big jump in noncommercial net longs, going from 117,182 to 170,416 on Feb. 14 as prices reached their highest level in over six months and attracted trend-followers. In spite of its pullback, March corn remains in a gradual uptrend. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Friday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in seven months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.45 after two Federal Reserve presidents indicated they were open to a March rate hike, reported Bloomberg.com and CNBC.com.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 6 1/4 cents Tuesday after private estimates pegged Brazil's harvest more than 25% complete and DTN's seven-day forecast expects mostly favorable harvest weather ahead. USDA said Monday that 39.6 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a slightly bullish amount that continues to slowly come down each week. What is not coming down is the number of noncommercial net-longs in soybeans. Friday's CFTC data showed traders still bullish with 176,321 contracts net long on Feb. 14, up 15,788 from the previous week. Of course, Friday's sell-off likely saw some of those positions come off, but noncommercials have remained a source of bullish support for eleven months and haven't shown concern yet about Brazil's record harvest. March soybean prices are showing some bearish strain in February but continue to hold above support at $10.17. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.59 Friday, priced 74 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down a nickel, showing no concern about the latest stretch of warm weather threatening to pull winter crops out of dormancy. Winter wheat is known for its hardiness and wheat prices had already rallied to a fairly high level last week in anticipation of the early spring-like weather. Monday morning, USDA said 20.5 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, much better than a year ago, but still leaving total inspections below USDA's estimated pace for 2016-17. USDA also said 5.1 mb (138,650 mt) of U.S. wheat were sold to unknown Tuesday, 3.4 mb (92,650 mt) of which were for 2016-17. On Feb. 14, as May Chicago wheat prices were over $4.60 a bushel, CFTC data showed noncommercials cut down their net shorts to 23,043, the least bearish position held since August 2015. While May Chicago wheat technically remains in an uptrend, it may be difficult for prices to trade much higher until weather becomes more of a factor this spring. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.05 Friday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.66 and down from its highest price in seven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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