DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was down 1 cent, March soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents, and March Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cent.

CME Globex Recap:

Much like Wednesday, corn, soybeans and wheat were quietly lower overnight, but this time are waiting for USDA's weekly report of export sales, due out at 7:30 a.m. CST. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.32 with other commodities steady to higher.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 107.45 points at 20,611.86. The NASDAQ Composite was up 36.87 points at 5,819.44 and the S&P 500 was up 11.67 points at 2,349.25 Wednesday. DJIA futures were down 29 points early Thursday morning. Asian markets were mixed with Japan's Nikkei down 90.45 points (-0.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 112.83 points (0.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 16.63 points (+0.5%). European markets were lower Thursday with London's FTSE 100 down 34.25 points (-0.5%), Germany's DAX down 21.35 points (-0.2%), and France's CAC 40 down 22.07 points (-0.5%). The U.S. dollar index was down 0.32 at 100.77 while the euro was up 0.00405 at 1.06405. March 30-year T-Bonds were up 15/32nds at 150'13 while April gold was up $5.10 at $1,238.20. March crude oil was up $0.03 at $53.14 while Brent crude was up $0.04 at $55.79. Soybeans at the Dalian Exchange are steady overnight and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.4%.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Wednesday's closes produced new 7-month highs in March corn and K.C. wheat, a new 5-month high in March Chicago wheat, and new contract closing high in December soybean meal.	1)	Increased corn and soybean production from South America is widely anticipated in early 2017 with Brazil's soybean harvest making good progress.
2)	U.S. corn shipments are up 67% in 2016-17 from a year ago and still cheaper than Brazil's prices.	2)	It is still not clear how trade relations will change with China and others -- or how those countries might retaliate.
3)	Warm temperatures are expected to return to the southwestern Plains later this week, enticing winter crops out of dormancy at an early date.	3)	U.S. wheat supplies remain burdensome.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN March corn was down 1 cent early Thursday, playing possum again overnight, but don't be fooled as prices continue to trend steadily higher in 2017. Thursday morning's export sales report is likely to show another active week of U.S. export business and that should continue for at least a few more months while the U.S. continues to be the cheaper provider compared to Brazil. It also helps U.S. row crop exports that Brazil's real just closed at its highest price in 17 months Wednesday. Things may get more bearish for corn this summer when South American supplies start to show up, but until then, March corn continues to trend gradually higher.

SOYBEANS March soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents early, giving back part of Wednesday's gain which went along with January's larger-than-expected crush estimate from the National Oilseeds Processors Association. It is very difficult to assess soybean demand in 2016-17, especially when we don't know what trade policy changes lie ahead, but we have to say that so far, soybean demand has been bullish enough push December soybean meal prices to a new contract high close while a record soybean harvest is underway in Brazil and that is no small matter. March soybeans continue to trend higher in early 2017.

WHEAT March Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cent early, but is staying near its highest prices in five months as the market starts the year with better demand for cash wheat. The southwestern Plains has dealt with dry conditions and yo-yo temperatures this winter and is now facing unseasonably warm temperatures in mid-February. The Climate Prediction Center will release is forecast for March later Thursday morning, giving us another clue of what to expect for this year's winter crop. So far, March Chicago wheat continues to trend higher with little opposition.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.42	$0.04	-$0.37	Mar	-$0.003
Soybeans:	$9.87	$0.16	-$0.75	Mar	-$0.002
SRW Wheat:	$4.18	$0.05	-$0.37	Mar	-$0.001
HRW Wheat:	$3.78	$0.04	-$0.91	Mar	$0.002
HRS Wheat:	$5.30	$0.02	-$0.40	May	-$0.005

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Toddcan be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\ToddHultman1

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