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March corn was fractionally higher, March soybeans were 4 cents higher, and July Kansas City wheat was 1 cent higher.
CME Globex Recap:Grain markets were back to 'normal' overnight, whatever 'normal' might be, with renewed buying seen in soybeans, light trade in corn, and weak pressure in wheat. Outside markets were mixed with the energy complex mostly higher, metals mostly lower, and softs appropriately mixed. The U.S. dollar index and DJIA futures were both showing small gains early Friday.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 118.06 points (0.6%) higher at 20,172.40. The NASDAQ Composite gained 32.73 points (0.6%) to 5,715.18 and the S&P 500 added 13.20 points (0.6%) to 2,307.87 Thursday. DJIA futures were 19 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets were higher with Japan's Nikkei up 471.26 points (2.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 49.84 points (0.2%), and China's Shanghai Composite added 13.62 points (0.4%). European markets were mixed Friday with London's FTSE 100 up 20.59 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX gaining 17.09 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 off 6.43 points (0.1%). The U.S. dollar index was 0.07 higher at 100.74 while the euro lost another 0.0010 to 1.0647. March 30-year T-Bonds were 9/32 lower to 151'29 while April gold fell $8.50 to $1,228.30. Crude oil gained $0.42 to $53.42 while Brent crude rallied $0.54 to $56.17. Dalian soybean futures were mixed while Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | U.S. and world ending stocks of corn were decreased in Thursday's USDA reports. | 1) | Despite its extraordinary pace, projected export demand for U.S. corn was left unchanged. |
| 2) | USDA lowered world ending stocks of soybeans due in large part to a decreased production estimate for Argentina. | 2) | The domestic soybean supply-and-demand table was left completely unchanged, bringing projected ending stocks in larger than expected. |
| 3) | U.S. wheat export demand was increased by 50 mb in USDA's February Supply and Demand report. | 3) | Though decreased, world wheat ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use remain cumbersome. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN Despite receiving bullish news in USDA's February Supply and Demand reports, in the form of decreased domestic and world ending stocks projections, old-crop March corn was unable to sustain the breakout above its previous high of $3.71. And while its minor (short-term) trend remains up on daily charts, as does its secondary (intermediate-term) trend on weekly charts, old-crop corn is moving into a technically overbought situation that could lead to renewed selling interest. Fundamentally the market remains an enigma, boasting a projected ending stocks-to-use percentage of 15.9% (compared to last marketing year's estimated 12.7%) as export demand remains strong but unaccounted for. Or so it would seem. Friday's session could be quiet, with traders turning their attention back to South American weather as another harvest weekend begins. As for new-crop December, its average daily close in February so far (for initial insurance guaranteed price purposes) is roughly $3.95. Last year's came in at $3.86.
SOYBEANS Renewed commercial selling was seen in soybeans Thursday following the release of USDA's Supply and Demand reports, reports that basically left domestic and world tables unchanged. The only adjustment was a decrease of 1.5 mmt to Argentina's production estimate. The solid downtrend in the old-crop March-to-May futures spread (strengthening carry) remains a concern heading into another South American harvest weekend. As with corn, old-crop U.S. export demand was left unchanged despite an impressive pace seen through the first-half of the marketing year. This continues to imply a wait-and-see approach as to ideas this pace will continue. Given the largely unchanged fundamental tables from USDA it would not be surprising to see soybeans close lower again Friday. Regarding new-crop November, its average daily close in February (for initial insurance guaranteed price purposes) so far is approximately $10.19. Last year's came in at $8.85.
WHEAT Winter wheat markets were quietly mixed early Friday, with light selling trimming some of Thursday's gains in Chicago while Kansas City was fractionally higher. Despite overnight trade the ongoing uptrends remain strong in both markets. The recent weakening of carry in the Chicago March-to-May futures spread turned out to be a good indicator of USDA's increased export demand projection. USDA now thinks the U.S. will export 1.025 billion bushels, a marketing year-to-marketing year increase of 32%, despite all statistical evidence to the contrary. Look for the wheat market to be relatively quiet heading into the weekend, with the only real excitement being the continued spring-like weather forecasts for the U.S. Southern Plains HRW growing area.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.33 | -$0.01 | -$0.37 | Mar | -$0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $9.75 | -$0.08 | -$0.76 | Mar | $0.000 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.06 | $0.11 | -$0.37 | Mar | $0.001 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.60 | $0.09 | -$0.91 | Mar | $0.001 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.28 | $0.09 | -$0.39 | May | -$0.003 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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