DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices showed mixed moves again the fourth week of January 2017, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. However, some fertilizers are showing significant price increases for the first time this winter.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were higher, though only two were higher by any substantial amount. UAN28 was 8% higher compared to a month earlier while UAN32 was 5% more expensive. UAN28 had an average price of $235 per ton while UAN32 was at $268/ton.

Four fertilizers were slightly higher priced, but not by a significant amount. MAP had an average price of $443/ton, potash $322/ton, urea $347/ton and anhydrous $480/ton.

Two fertilizers were slightly lower, but again, these moves to the low side were not that noteworthy. DAP had an average price of $429/ton and 10-34-0 $436/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.38/lb.N, anhydrous $0.29/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.42/lb.N.

Seeing nitrogen fertilizer prices strengthening at this time of year should not be that surprising with demand increasing as the spring application season approaches. The degree to which the nutrients will rise this winter/spring will be worth watching closely.

Clarke McGrath, Iowa State University Extension on-farm research coordinator for the Iowa Soybean Research Center and agronomist in southwestern Iowa, told DTN he was concerned about what nitrogen prices could do in the coming months because of what happened -- or, more specifically, what didn't happen much -- last fall.

"We saw a poor fall application season last fall here with maybe half to two-thirds of the usual fall nitrogen application," McGrath said. "This could put pressure on those different forms of nitrogen this winter, and this market could be susceptible to market swings."

McGrath, who spent several years in the fertilizer retailer business, said he is most worried about what could happen this spring, both with logistics and prices, with little nitrogen applied in the fall in his region.

A "normal" spring application season with increased nitrogen application could lead to issues with supply and could cause price spikes. If we see a wet spring and farmers have to switch away from anhydrous to liquid or dry forms, the demand increases in the different forms of nitrogen could cause all forms to increase in price, he said.

While there is some concern about nitrogen prices, price outlooks for the other two major fertilizers appear to be fairly stable as the spring planting season slowly inches closer. Both phosphorus (P) and potash (K) prices appear to be fairly stable at present, and this trend could stay in place through the spring, he said.

"I think retailers saw the writing on the wall and loaded up on P and K, and we also did get some applied (in the fall), so I don't think we will see P and K prices move much in the coming months," he said.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers but one are now double digits lower.

The one fertilizer no longer down double digits is urea, which is now down 9%. Both DAP and UAN28 are now 13% less expensive while MAP is 14% lower. Both anhydrous and UAN32 are 16% lower, potash is 18% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 24% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 25-29 2016	495	515	391	380
Feb 22-26 2016	477	492	373	371
Mar 21-25 2016	475	501	371	390
Apr 18-22 2016	477	502	366	388
May 16-20 2016	476	501	365	384
June 13-17 2016	469	496	359	367
July 11-15 2016	467	496	358	360
Aug 8-12 2016	453	482	344	345
Sept 5-9 2016	446	464	325	325
Oct 3-7 2016	438	451	312	315
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	436	451	314	319
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	435	445	318	331
Dec 26-30 2016	431	443	321	336
Jan 23-27 2017	429	443	322	347
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 25-29 2016	571	569	271	317
Feb 22-26 2016	566	536	260	309
Mar 21-25 2016	561	569	276	312
Apr 18-22 2016	561	588	274	322
May 16-20 2016	558	588	274	321
June 13-17 2016	555	566	266	305
July 11-15 2016	538	547	266	306
Aug 8-12 2016	528	522	249	299
Sept 5-9 2016	478	502	228	274
Oct 3-7 2016	454	472	224	263
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	452	471	244	262
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	447	465	217	256
Dec 26-30 2016	437	466	217	254
Jan 23-27 2017	436	480	235	268

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(BAS/AG)

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