DTN Closing Grain Comments

Grains Quiet, Wheat Shows Late Rebound

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the March contract and up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents in the March contract and down 3 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 3 3/4 cents in the March Kansas City and down 2 3/4 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.93 at 99.48. April gold is up $19.40 at $1,215.40 while March silver is up $0.42 and March copper is up $0.0680. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 175 at 19,796. March crude oil is up $0.02 at $52.65. March heating oil is down $0.0013 while March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0130 and March natural gas is down $0.105.

Corn:

March corn closed 2 cents higher in a quiet day of trading with little new happening in the world of grains. Brazil's crop conditions remain generally favorable with more broad rain coverage expected in the week ahead. In Argentina, flooding concerns have eased with drier weather since mid-January's rains, but there are more chances for rain returning the next five days. Still plagued by plentiful corn supplies, but also helped by this season's higher demand pace, March corn continues to trade roughly sideways with a slight bullish tilt. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.22 Monday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.93 after Eurostat reported the lowest unemployment rate in over seven years. According to CNBC, comments from President Trump's trade advisor in the Financial Times complained that Germany was benefitting from a cheap euro and that likely also added to Tuesday's selling in the dollar.

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Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 1 3/4 cents Tuesday, still showing caution while Brazil's soybean harvest makes progress, and concerns about trade with China and Mexico remain on traders' minds. March soybean oil closed up 0.24, attracting modest commercial buying after Monday's oil price posted its lowest close in three months. The action in soybean prices doesn't feel bullish the way prices have dropped 50 cents the past two weeks, but they did manage to salvage a 20-cent gain for the month. This season's increased soybean exports have been bullish enough to lift prices from their harvest lows and maintain a sideways range the past two months, but time is running out as Brazil's next crop makes it way to ports. So far, March soybeans continue to trade sideways with support at the January low of $9.92 3/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.46 Monday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and down over 50 cents from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents, helped by a late run of commercial buying in response to wheat's lowest prices in three weeks and Tuesday's lower dollar. Like corn and soybeans, wheat also finished the month of January with a gain that doesn't feel so bullish after the decline of the past two weeks. DTN's seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the southwestern Plains with yo-yo temperatures that may cause wheat problems later, but prices are showing no concern this early in the new year. Cash wheat prices saw decent improvement this month and March Chicago wheat succeeded in expanding its trading range, but the range is still sideways as we work through winter. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.77 Monday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.34 and down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

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Todd Hultman