DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 3/4 cents in the March contract and down 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 26 1/2 cents in the March contract and down 21 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 8 1/2 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 8 3/4 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.08 at 100.45. April gold is up $5.60 at $1,196.70 while March silver is down $0.01 and March copper is down $0.0245. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 177 at 19,917. March crude oil is down $0.51 at $52.68. March heating oil is down $0.0079 while March RBOB gasoline is down $0.0141 and March natural gas is down $0.120.

Corn:

March corn closed down nearly a nickel, influenced by Monday's sell-off in soybeans and growing expectations for big row-crop harvests out of South America. DTN's forecast remains favorable for both, Brazil and Argentina this week with a broad coverage of light to moderate rain and more seasonal temperatures in Argentina. The one bright spot for corn since the fall harvest has been this season's increased demand, and on Monday morning, USDA said 41.8 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that has total inspections up 75% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA also said 4.1 million bushels (105,000 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to Colombia for 2016-17. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials becoming increasingly bullish in corn with 106,737 net longs as of Jan. 24 just after prices fell away from their challenge of the six-month high. This is looking like traders were wrong-footed and noncommercial selling has likely fueled the decline in prices since then. March corn is back in the middle of its sideways range with resistance at $3.71. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Friday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in over five months. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.08, trading near its lowest price in two months, with no rate hike expected at the end of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting.

Soybeans:

March soybeans dropped 26 1/2 cents Monday, nearly erasing the Argentina-related rally of a couple weeks ago. Since Argentina's famously wet weekend, their weather has been drier, allowing for some recovery and this week's forecast only expects light to moderate rain amounts with more seasonal temperatures. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentina's soybean crop at 53.5 million metric tons late last week and that seemed to help ease concerns while Brazil's soybean crop remains on pace for a record high 104.0 mmt. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders added to net longs in soybeans last week, holding 181,011 contracts as of Jan. 24, the most since late-July. As with corn, this looks to be a case of bad timing with March soybeans now down over 50 cents from their high of two weeks ago. The trend in March soybeans remains gradually higher, but prices are back in the middle of their two-month range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.73 Friday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and back near its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents Monday, back in the middle of its sideways range after trying to trade higher earlier this month. The good news for wheat producers is that there has been some improvement in wheat's cash prices this month, but when it comes to the futures market, March Chicago wheat fell short of its three-month high on Jan. 17 and has surrendered again to a sideways, albeit wider trading range. Friday's CFTC data showed the same old story. Noncommercials are staying perpetually bearish in Chicago wheat, holding 58,258 contracts net short as of Jan. 24, while commercials continue to provide support, holding 54,946 contracts net long. This week's forecast is dry across the central U.S. with warmer temperatures in the Southern Plains earlier in the week. March Chicago wheat continues to trade roughly sideways. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.82 Friday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.41 and down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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