DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was down 1 1/2 cents, March soybeans were down 3 cents, and March Chicago wheat was down 1 cent.

CME Globex Recap:

All three grains were lower early in quiet trading ahead of Thursday morning export sales report from USDA. The stock market appears to have more gas in the tank, set to open higher after Wednesday's Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 20,000 for the first time.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 155.80 points at 20,068.51. The NASDAQ Composite was up 55.38 points at 5,656.34 and the S&P 500 was up 18.30 points at 2,298.37 Wednesday. DJIA futures were up 32 points early Thursday morning. Asian markets were higher with Japan's Nikkei up 344.89 points (1.8%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 325.05 points (1.4%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 9.61 points (0.3%). European markets were also higher Thursday with London's FTSE 100 up 14.78 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX up 68.22 points (0.6%), and France's CAC 40 up 19.91 points (0.4%). The U.S. dollar index was up 0.30 at 100.22 while the euro was down 0.00280 at 1.07335. March 30-year T-Bonds were down 10/32nds at 149'05 while February gold was down $5.30 at $1,192.50. March crude oil was up $0.15 at $52.90 while Brent crude was up $0.27 at $55.35. Dalian soybean futures were steady to higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.1%.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	March corn is still near the upper end of its six-month range.	1)	Record fall corn and soybean harvests started 2016-17 with plenty of supply.
2)	Argentina has suffered production loss from adverse weather, possibly as much as 5% to 10%.	2)	U.S. soybean exports remain above a year ago, but a possible trade conflict is brewing with China and Brazil's harvest has begun.
3)	The U.S. dollar index is staying down from the 14-year high made in December after President Trump said he supports a weaker dollar.	3)	U.S. wheat supplies remain burdensome and drought conditions are expected to ease the next three months.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN March corn was down 1 1/2 cents in quiet overnight trade, apparently content to stay within its old sideways range of the past three months. In the northern Midwest, travel becomes easier with mostly dry weather following this week's winter storm and temperatures that are expected to gradually warm this weekend. In South America, crop conditions remain mostly favorable in Brazil this week with more rain coverage in central Brazil. Argentina's forecast for next week expects more rain in central Argentina and will need to be watched for a return of flooding concerns. March corn continues to trade sideways to higher with resistance encountered at this week's high of $3.71.

SOYBEANS March soybeans were down 3 cents early, slowly backing down from last week's new six-month high with bearish concerns outnumbering bullish arguments at the moment. Top of the list is the advancement of Brazil's soon-to-be record harvest, just weeks away from reaching ports. Argentina's less favorable weather has tempered this season's bearishness and an early forecast for rain next week in central Argentina could add to their flooding problems. In spite of bearish concerns, March soybeans continue to trend higher and Thursday morning's report of weekly export sales will be closely watched.

WHEAT March Chicago wheat was down a penny with slight bearish influence from corn and a U.S. dollar index trading up 0.30. DTN's seven-day forecast is dry for most of the central U.S., including the southwestern Plains with temperatures turning warmer again in the southern Plains early next week. Beyond that, there is not a lot happening for wheat at this time of year and Thursday morning's export sales are not expected to save the U.S. from its large stockpiles. Until there is some production threat to talk about, we will keep saying that March Chicago wheat continues to trade roughly sideways with a three-month high of $4.37 1/2.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.31	$0.03	-$0.36	Mar	$0.000
Soybeans:	$9.79	-$0.03	-$0.76	Mar	$0.002
SRW Wheat:	$3.85	-$0.02	-$0.39	Mar	$0.004
HRW Wheat:	$3.45	-$0.04	-$0.93	Mar	$0.004
HRS Wheat:	$5.17	-$0.04	-$0.37	May	-$0.001

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

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