DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 cents in the March contract and up 2 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents in the March contract and up 1/2 cent in the November. Wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 4 cents in the March Kansas City, and down3 1/4 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.17 at 100.10. February gold is down $14.10 at $1,196.70 while March silver is down $0.22 and March copper is up $0.0010. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 165 at a new high of 20,078. March crude oil is down $0.28 at $52.90. March heating oil is down $0.0232 while March RBOB gasoline is down $0.0416 and March natural gas is up $0.043.

Corn:

March corn closed 3 cents higher, a modest bounce after Tuesday's 6 1/4 cent drop with help from USDA's news that 5.6 million bushels (141,224 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. Overall, South America's weather remains favorable for row crops, especially in Brazil while Argentina's conditions have been less than ideal. DTN's forecast for this week is mostly dry for Argentina -- helpful to areas that got too wet two weekends ago. However, the extended forecast has a chance for more rain to return to north-central Argentina in early February that deserves watching. Even with more crops on the way from down south, March corn remains in a gradual uptrend with resistance encountered at Tuesday's high of $3.71. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Tuesday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.17 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading above 20,000 for the first time ever.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents on light volume, showing little sign of going anywhere fast. The popular wisdom for soybeans is that U.S. supplies are higher in 2016-17, another big harvest is on its way from Brazil, and the U.S. is going to plant more soybean acres this spring -- all significant bearish factors. Add to that concerns from ag groups of TPP being cancelled, NAFTA being re-negotiated, and trade policy with China turning more aggressive and it would be fair to expect soybean prices to be falling, but they are not. Argentina's excess rain from two weekends ago gave prices a lift and even after Brazil's big crop this spring, USDA only expects Brazil to finish 2016-17 with 129 million bushels of ending supplies. There is plenty of bearish risk ahead, but so far, the world still needs U.S. soybeans and that is helping keep March soybeans in an uptrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.82 Tuesday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents, pressured by a return of noncommercial selling as Chicago wheat's recent uptrend appears to be running out of gas. Wheat's rally, which started after Christmas, has been a decent correction from 2016's excessive bearishness and gave cash prices a lift to their highest level in five months, but it will be difficult to get much more increase without help from adverse weather this spring. On that note, soil conditions remain dry throughout much of the southwestern Plains, but March K.C. wheat was down 4 cents with improvement seen in the past month. March Chicago wheat continues to trade roughly sideways while U.S. wheat supplies remain plentiful. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.87 Tuesday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.48 and down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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