DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

 
Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: 25-50 LR Live Equiv $130.93 - 1.85*
Hogs: Steady-$1 HR Futures: 50-100 HR Lean Equiv $ 85.96 + 2.46**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle buyers should start to make more of a presence Thursday as they position to secure short-term slaughter. Initial bidswill be around $116 in the South and $187 to $188 in the North. Feedlot psychology should be pumped by news of higher internet sales reported Wednesday. Asking prices are likely to be around $122 in the South and $195 in the North. Such a wide spread between bids and asking prices may mean that significant trade volume will not surface until sometime Friday. Live and feeder futures seem set to open moderately lower, pressured by residual selling and defensive action in the box trade.

Hog buyers are really spending the dough this week, chasing numbers like captive supplies are not as large as they would like to see. Look for opening bids to start out steady to $1 higher. Lean futures should play at least moderately higher, supported by contract cash and product news.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Fed Cattle Exchange auction sold 4,046 steers and heifers on Wednesday for a weighted average price of $119.16, up from $116.77 last week.	1)	For some reason, beef cutouts are caught in a bearish tailspin. Indeed, we seem to be in the process of giving back much of the impressive rally scored in the second half of December.
2)	Though cattle futures closed moderately lower Wednesday, the pullback seems tied to nothing more serious than modest profit-taking, hardly deep enough to compromise Tuesday's significant progress.	2)	For the week ending Jan. 7, U.S. hatcheries set 220 million broiler eggs in incubators; up 2% from a year ago. At the same time, chicks placed totaled 180 million, up 1% from 2016.
3)	The cash hog market once again shot sharply higher again at midweek, further evidence the supply of slaughter ready barrows and gilts is seasonally tightening.	3)	For the week ending Jan. 7, Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 282.5 pounds, .4 lbs. heavier than the week before and 3.8 lbs. lighter than 2016.
4)	The pork carcass value exploded back to life at midweek, gaining nearly $2.50 thanks to much better demand in all primals except the butt and picnic. Buying interest in hams and bellies seemed especially strong.	4)	This week's slaughter should come close to a 2.4 million head kill, topped by a big Saturday kill close to 240,000 head.

OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE: (Dow Jones) -- China's commerce ministry said Wednesday that it will start imposing antidumping and antisubsidy duties on U.S. exports of a livestock feed.

Starting Thursday, U.S. exporters of distillers dried grains will be subject to antidumping duties of between 42.2% and 53.7% and antisubsidy rates of between 11.2% and 12.0%, the Ministry of Commerce said in statements on its website.

The decisions will be in force for five years, the ministry said. It announced initial rulings on such tariffs in September.

HOGS: (National Hog Farmer) -- Biosecurity methods to decrease the risk of transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus via farm personnel or contaminated fomites are poorly understood. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of biosecurity procedures directed at minimizing transmission via personnel that implemented different biosecurity protocols using a controlled experimental setting.

Pigs were experimentally infected with PEDV and personnel moved between groups of infected and naïve pigs after following biosecurity measures that consisted of changing outer clothing and washing hands, showering or doing nothing.

Infected pigs shed PEDV with maximum levels one day post-infection (dpi), and shedding levels remained elevated through 19 dpi. Sentinel pigs in the low biosecurity group (LB) became PEDV-positive after the first movement of study personnel from the INF group.

However, rectal swabs from pigs in the medium biosecurity (MB) and high biosecurity (HB) groups were negative during the 10 consecutive days of movements and remained negative through 24 days post-movement (dpm) when the study was terminated.

Viral RNA was detected at 1 dpm through 3 dpm from the personnel protective equipment (PPE) of LB PPE personnel. In addition, at 1 dpm, two hair/face swabs from MB personnel were positive; however, transmission of virus was not detected. All swabs of fomite from the HB study personnel were negative.

Our results indicate that transmission of PEDV through contaminated PPE is possible, and it can occur rapidly (within 24 hours). More importantly, this study also identifies biosecurity measures that can be followed to minimize the risk of PEDV transmission, in particular in regards to the role that personnel play at spreading the virus. Biosecurity procedures such as changing outer coveralls and boots, washing hands or taking a shower are recommended to lower the risk of PEDV transmission in pig farms.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

Follow John Harrington on Twitter @feelofthemarket

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