USDA Reports Flash

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA may have befuddled the grain trade with its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday because the estimates held pat on U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks and use for the 2016-17 crops.

However, USDA did bump up global production and ending stocks for all three of the major crops in the December report, coming in above the pre-report average estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat.

The 2016-17 U.S. soybeans ending stocks stayed at 480 million bushels, despite the average pre-report trade expectations that stocks would come down slightly.

New U.S. crop ending stocks for corn also held firm at 2.403 billion bushels, slightly below the pre-report average.

Wheat also held firm at 1.143 billion bushels, though analysts had expected the wheat stocks to come down slightly as well.

USDA's domestic ending stocks estimates are neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World estimates are moderately bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Global corn production for 2016-17 was increased by 9 million metric tons to 1,039.73 mmt. If realized, the global corn production would be a record. Global ending stocks were raised 4 mmt to 222.25 mmt, which was higher than the pre-report expectations. Corn production was raised in Brazil on increases in both area and yield.

For the 2016-17 U.S. corn crop, every major supply-and-demand number remained at the November estimates. Production was pegged at 15.226 billion bushels and export projections stayed at 2.225 billion bushels. Ethanol demand kept steady at 5.3 billion bushels as well as ending stocks stuck at the 2.403 billion figure.

The only domestic change was a 5-cent increase in the average farm price to $3.35 a bushel with a range from $3.05 to $3.65 a bushel.

SOYBEANS

Global soybean production for the 2016-17 crop year was increased 1.91 million metric tons to 338 mmt due to higher yields expected in India and Canada. Global ending stocks were also increased by 1.32 mmt to 82.85 mmt.

The 2016-17 crop for U.S. soybean production is unchanged at 4.361 billion bushels and exports are also unchanged at 2.05 billion bushels. USDA noted that although early-season soybean exports were sharply higher than a year ago, more competition will be expected later in the marketing year from South America, which would limit U.S. export prospects over the summer.

USDA did bump up the U.S. farm-gate price for soybeans by 25 cents a bushel to an average of $9.45 with a range from $8.70 to $10.20 a bushel.

WHEAT

Globally, USDA raised wheat production for 2016-17 by 6.54 million metric tons to 751.26 mmt. That was driven largely by a projected 4.7-million-ton bump in Australia's production and lesser increases in Brazil and the European Union. Global exports were bumped up 2.6 mmt and global wheat ending stocks were also increased 2.91 mmt to 252.14 mmt.

There were no changes in U.S. wheat stocks and use with production pegged at 2.31 billion bushels with total use projected at 2.27 billion bushels and ending stocks coming in at 1.14 billion bushels.

At the farm-gate level, the average U.S. wheat price remained at $3.70 a bushel, though USDA narrowed the price range to $3.60 to $3.80 a bushel.

SORGHUM

USDA did lower ending stocks for grain sorghum to 35 million bushels, down from November by 5 million bushels. That cuts against the average pre-report forecast, which had expected USDA to raise sorghum ending stocks slightly. USDA stated the ethanol industry would use another 5 million bushels of sorghum throughout the year.

COTTON

USDA also issued crop production numbers for cotton, which was forecast at 16.5 million bales, up 2% from November's forecast and 28% higher than cotton production in 2015. Cotton yield was pegged at 821 pounds per acre, up 55 pounds an acre from 2015.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2016-2017
	Dec	Avg	High	Low	Nov	2015-16
Corn	2,403	2,416	2,584	2,369	2,403	1,738
Soybeans	480	472	514	439	480	197
Grain Sorghum	35	41	45	37	40	37
Wheat	1,143	1,138	1,175	1,030	1,143	976
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2016-2017
	Dec	Avg	High	Low	Nov	2015-16
Corn	222.3	219.2	224.8	217.1	218.2	209.4
Soybeans	82.9	81.2	83.0	78.1	81.5	77.1
Wheat	252.1	250.4	252.6	249.0	249.2	241.0
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
		2016-17			2015-16
		Dec	Nov		Dec	Nov
Australian wheat		33.0	28.3		24.5	24.5
FSU - 12 wheat		131.4	131.4		118.2	118.2
Brazil corn		86.5	83.5		67.0	67.0
FSU - 12 corn		46.6	45.6		39.9	39.9
Argentina soybeans		57.0	57.0		56.8	56.8
Brazil soybeans		102.0	102.0		96.5	96.5

(AG)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.