Donald Trump Elected President

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Donald Trump was elected America's 45th president Tuesday.

The election will go down as one of the most stunning and sweeping victories in U.S. history as Trump and Republicans took both the presidency from Democrats and potentially both chambers of Congress.

The election results throughout Tuesday night showed just how angry American voters were with the current state of the economy and traditional politicians. The election will go down as a devastating loss for Democrats who went into Election Day convinced Hillary Clinton was going to win the White House and that Democrats would capture the Senate. Republicans held onto their slim Senate majority Wednesday.

GLOBAL STOCKS PLUNGE

Global stocks plunged as results came in throughout the evening and Trump's momentum began to build in Florida and other battleground states. Shortly before midnight Central Standard Time, Dow Jones futures were trending down 700 points. The S&P and NASDAQ halted nightly futures trade after 5% losses. The U.S. dollar index was down 1.8% and the Mexican peso futures were down more than 7%.

Grains were lower with December corn down 4 cents, and January soybeans down 10 cents after trading lower earlier in the night. Wheat was also down 4 cents. Gold was trending upward, moving $50 higher per ounce.

The market reaction to Trump's election will continue to play out in the overnight trading of stock, commodities and the currency markets. Follow the comment sections of the DTN Market Matters Blog for ongoing overnight trade moves with posts from DTN analysts Darin Newsom and Todd Hultman. (See http://dld.bz/…)

Any change in the results early in the morning will be posted on the Ag Policy Blog as well.

Trump, 70, played to a rural strategy, particularly in the final days of the campaign as he sought to boost the turnout among rural, white voters who are far more conservative than other Americans. Trump swept the Plains from Texas to North Dakota, as well as the Southeast. Trump's voter wave overcame a counter-vote among Latinos who opposed Trump's immigration policies.

A DTN/The Progressive Farmer exclusive Zogby poll released last week showed Trump getting nearly twice the rural vote as Clinton. That certainly played out in Tuesday's election. (See http://dld.bz/…)

BATTLEGROUND STATES CAPTURED

The tide turned throughout the night as Trump captured key battleground states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

Beyond defying most conventional political norms, Trump's campaign attacked the global trade economy and U.S. immigration. That resonated in rural America and turned pre-election polling on its head. Clearly, political elites -- particularly professional pollsters -- underestimated Trump's strength in rural America and the influence it would have on the presidential race.

A major issue for Trump in the coming weeks will be to convince wary investors that he and his advisers are up to the task of managing the U.S. economy. A sustained decline in market equity won't bode well for anyone leading into the holiday season.

Trump could govern with a GOP-led Senate and House. Democrats, despite a major push to capture the Senate, were crushed in several Senate races Democrats expected to win. Late into the night, just a few Senate races remained uncalled. Still, one of Trump's first opportunities will be to fill the open Supreme Court seat with a conservative justice.

INFLUENCE ON AG

Trump has promised to lift the yoke of regulatory burden off farmers, largely by retracting rules at EPA such as the waters of the rule in the Clean Water Act. Trump's agricultural advisers during the campaign have also talked about reducing regulatory controls under the Bureau of Land Management and with the Endangered Species Act.

Trump also plans to scrap all Obama administration regulations on climate change and energy production. Trump has argued his administration would concentrate on "energy dominance as a strategic economic and foreign policy goal." With that, he has called for removing regulators that are obstacles to energy exploration.

Yet, the cornerstone of Trump's campaign was his immigration agenda, which resonated early with GOP primary voters as Trump promised to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico. Immigration enforcement will be much tighter under a Trump administration. That means farmers who rely on immigrant labor are going to have to ensure those workers are in the country legally under a Trump administration. He has called for tougher enforcement crackdowns and wants to triple the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers around the country. Further, Trump wants to expand the federal E-Verify program which has largely exempted farmers in the past.

One of biggest impacts a Trump administration might have on farmers is in changes to the tax code. Trump has promised to end the estate tax, but his plan also calls for a capital gains tax on assets valued over $10 million, though Trump's website states small businesses and family farms would be exempted. Trump's tax plan, if enacted, would reduce the tax code from seven brackets to three with a top tax rate at 33% for incomes of more than $225,000. Corporate tax rates would be lowered to 15%.

Trade will be an area where a Trump administration may clash the most with farmers and many business people. Trump opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership and has said he would withdraw the U.S. from the deal, which has not yet been ratified. Trump also has called for renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, though both Canada and Mexico have balked at such a request. Trump also has said his administration would aggressively pursue trade cases against China. That means a Trump administration would push to reset the trade dynamics with the country's three largest destinations for U.S. ag exports.

It is still possible Congress and Obama could get a TPP deal approved in a lame-duck session of Congress, but that is doubtful.

Trump has talked little about the farm bill and would be expected to leave a lot of that work to Congress. His advisers, as well as at least some members of Congress, have discussed starting the process of writing a new farm bill earlier than expected because of low commodity prices. That, however, could clash with congressional expectations of reducing government spending.

Beyond specific agricultural issues, Trump also will get the opportunity to nominate a Supreme Court justice since the U.S. Senate has denied Obama that opportunity.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN

(ES/AG)

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