DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Grains Mixed, China Takes More Soybeans

Todd Hultman , DTN Grains Analyst
(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 19.0 million bushels (516,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2016-17. Before the announcement, grains had hardly budged overnight after USDA showed harvest and wheat planting progress close to their usual paces.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Higher
Crude Oil: Lower


December corn was unchanged in quiet overnight trading. Scattered showers are falling in South Dakota and are expected to expand eastward during the next two days, bringing enough rain to the northern Midwest to slow down harvest for a few days. So far, harvest has gone well and 61% of the corn is out of the field, reported USDA late Monday. Drier weather is expected to return Thursday and the extended forecast looks mostly warm and dry so no major problems are expected. USDA's crop estimate of 15.06 billion bushels is not likely to change much so the rest of 2016-17 is up to demand and, so far, demand has been doing well. December corn is slowly trending higher with the next resistance at $3.60. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.05 Monday, priced 43 cents below the December contract and near its highest price in three months. In outside markets, December copper is up 4.5 cents a pound after RTTNews.com reported a more positive outlook from Germany manufacturing sector.


At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 19.0 million bushels (516,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2016-17. Before the announcement, November soybeans were a couple cents lower at the break, pulling back after January palm oil gave back part of Monday's big gain and closed 2.2% lower. Meal prices were slightly higher while December soybean oil paused down .30. Late Monday, USDA said 76% of soybeans were harvested, and as described for corn above, harvest will be delayed a few days this week in the northern Midwest while moderate showers move through. The record harvest of 4.27 billion bushels may even grow a little when USDA's next estimate comes up in November, but as far as prices are concerned, traders have had at least two months of anticipation and the bearish effect is slowly losing its impact. For the next several months, soybeans will be focused on demand and South America's weather and both are favorable, so far. November soybeans are challenging the upper limit of their sideways range at $9.94. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.19 Monday, priced 73 cents below the November contract and up from its lowest price in six months.


December Chicago wheat was up a half-cent early, staying in the same narrow, sideways range that it has traded in for nearly two months. Late Monday, USDA said 79% of winter wheat was planted and 60% was emerged, on track with its usual pace. Fifty-nine percent of the winter wheat crop is rated good-to-excellent, which is above the five-year average, but it is far too early for any crop rating to have much meaning. Overall, Chicago wheat prices are stuck at their lowest prices in 10 years with a current pace of exports that is no match for the heavy supplies weighing on this market. December Chicago wheat remains confined to its sideways range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.56 Monday, priced 47 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in eight weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reachedat todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Toddon Twitter @ToddHultman1


Todd Hultman