DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 1 cent in the September contract and down 1 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 3 1/2 cents in the September contract and down 8 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 1/2 cent in the December Kansas City, and down 7 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up .21 at 94.70. December gold is down $18.90 at $1,327.20 while September silver is down $0.41 and September copper is down $0.0365. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 48 at 18,499. October crude oil is down $1.35 at $46.75. October heating oil is down $0.0087 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0070 and October natural gas is up $0.037.

Corn:

December corn closed a penny lower Wednesday after another summer storm passed through the Midwest, dropping moderate to heavy rain amounts from eastern Nebraska to northwestern Indiana. Day two of Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour posted corn yield estimates that were down 4% from a year ago in Nebraska, but up 21% from a year ago in Indiana. Anecdotal reports on day three produced numerous areas with estimates near or above 200 bushels in Iowa and Illinois as many have been expecting. With frequent rains in July and August and mostly moderate summer temperatures prevailing, it seems likely that USDA's estimate of 15.1 billion bushels is not far off the mark and that is keeping December corn prices depressed in the low-$3s. On the demand side, Wednesday's news was mixed for corn. USDA said 4.0 million bushels (101,600 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that last week's ethanol production slipped from 1.029 million to 1.028 million barrels per day as inventory increased from 20.4 million to 20.8 million barrels -- a slightly bearish sign of slower demand. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $2.98 Tuesday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in 22 months. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up .21 with traders waiting to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen on Friday morning.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed lower Wednesday as traders appear unwilling to bid prices up to a new five-week high while many are expecting a record harvest in the next couple of months. Day two of this week's crop tour estimated a slightly higher soybean pod count for Nebraska from a year ago and a 7% increase for Indiana from a year ago. So far on Wednesday, anecdotal reports are matching high expectations for Illinois and Iowa, but it will be interesting to see the daily report this evening. December soybean oil fell back .33 Wednesday while December meal ended down $1.60 in spite of earlier commercial buying. November soybeans continue to trade sideways with a neutral fundamental outlook and support near $9.50. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.83 Tuesday, priced 30 cents below the November contract.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat ended a little lower after taking a brief stab this morning at new contract lows. Wheat prices continue to be plagued by plentiful supplies while the U.S. is harvesting the final one-third of the spring wheat crop. With the production season coming to an end in the Northern Hemisphere, the window of opportunity for higher prices is closing once again without major incident and the likely consequence will be another winter of low wheat prices ahead. On the other hand, there is always room for surprise and demand for U.S. wheat has picked up this year, thanks to more competitive U.S. prices. Dow Jones reported Wednesday that China's imports of wheat increased 23% in the first seven months of 2016 while corn imports dropped 22%. December Chicago wheat continues to trade roughly sideways with no bullish argument in sight. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.74 Tuesday, priced 34 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in over six years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.17, still near its lowest price in over 10 years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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