DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 3/4 cent in the September and up 1 cent in the December. Soybeans closed down 26 cents in the August and down 24 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 7 1/2 cents in the September Chicago, up 11 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 9 cents in the September Minneapolis.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.45 at 97.50. August gold is down $8.30 at $1,322.70 while September silver is down $0.13 and September copper is down .0235. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32 at 18,550. September crude oil is down 0.63 at $44.12. September heating oil is $0.0172 lower, September RBOB gasoline is $0.0036 lower, and September natural gas is $0.085 higher.

For the week:

September corn closed down 17 1/4 cents while December closed down 16 1/2 cents. August soybeans were down 66 cents while the November was down 69 cents. September Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cent, September Kansas City wheat was up 5 1/4 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed slightly higher Friday but was still lower on the week. If it's any consolation, corn held up much better than soybeans, mostly due to the fact that corn has already endured a lot of noncommercial liquidation, while soybeans are just getting started. This week's heat brought some stress to pollinating corn, but July's rains have provided excellent widespread protection to nearly all crop areas, except for South Dakota, Michigan, and the northeastern U.S. Friday's weather map saw another example of helpful showers from eastern Iowa to Ohio and DTN's seven-day forecast is expecting wide coverage of moderate amounts, which will include eastern South Dakota. Put it all together and these are excellent conditions for developing corn and also a bearish weight on corn prices. December corn remains under bearish pressure. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.04 Thursday, priced 30 cents below the September contract and at the lowest price over 21 months. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up .45, extending this week's new four-month high while the U.S. economy continues to attract investors with decent growth.

Soybeans:

November soybeans fell to their lowest close in three months, hurt by a mix of commercial and noncommercial selling in the face of crop-friendly forecasts. This week's hot temperatures failed to lift prices, thanks to beneficial rains in July, more in the 10-day forecast, and a return of moderate summer temperatures after Saturday. Most of the triple-digit temperatures were confined to the southwestern Plains this week and are expected to be completely out of the central U.S. by Monday. That leaves the door wide open for nearly ideal conditions as soybeans reach their pod-filling stage next month. While this spring's uptrend has been broken and it looks like another soybean crop near 4 billion bushels is now likely, U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2016-17 are still likely to be even with or lower than a year ago, so prices should be able to find support somewhere above this year's lows. With crop conditions favorable and noncommercials heavily net-long, November soybeans remain under bearish pressure. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.76 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the November contract and at is lowest price in over two months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed higher Friday and showed a slight gain for the week with help from noncommercial short-covering. It is a sign of how bearish the wheat market has become in the past year that brief bouts of noncommercial short-covering are the only thing wheat prices have going for them anymore. With USDA expecting another year of record high world wheat production and fourth consecutive year of higher global ending stocks, nearly all but commercial buyers have been wrung out of the market. Even concerns of dry spring wheat conditions or this month's drop in France's crop ratings have not been enough to entice buyers back into this market. September Chicago wheat is likely to keep trading roughly sideways at this very cheap level. DTN's National SRW Wheat Index contract closed at $3.85 Thursday, priced 33 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in six years. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $3.28, near its lowest price in 10 years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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