Beneficial August Crop Weather Forecast

NOAA: August Looks Good for Crops

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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The NOAA August forecast keeps a benign to beneficial effect in place for the last full month of summer 2016. (NOAA Graphic)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Judging by the August forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the stage is set for promising-looking corn and soybean crops to "bring it home" in the form of big production numbers in 2016.

Earlier this season, August was feared to bring on hot and dry conditions. That's not the case according to the CPC forecast issued Thursday, July 21.

The forecast calls for "equal chances" of above-normal, normal or below-normal temperatures for the Northern Plains and the northern through central Midwest, with above-normal values in the southwestern U.S., Southern Plains, Delta, and the eastern and southeastern U.S.

Precipitation features above-normal tendencies for the Northern Plains and the western Midwest and "equal chances" in the rest of the central and eastern U.S., except for below-normal amounts along the Gulf Coast and in the northeastern Great Lakes.

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At least part of the reason for the variable temperature forecast in the northern and central crop areas is the effect of favorable soil moisture supplies, according to CPC forecaster Dan Collins. "The soil moisture supplies certainly help with a milder temperature outlook in the Midwest and Northern Plains," Collins said.

In addition, Pacific Ocean temperatures and barometric trends have not trended toward La Nina values as rapidly as indicated a few months ago. "The probability of La Nina has dropped in the last two months," Collins said. "The rate of cooling in the Pacific has leveled off."

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino echoed Collins' views on the leveling-out of the Pacific temperatures. "The sea surface temperature departure for the eastern equatorial Pacific stands at -0.1 degrees Celsius below normal for the month of June. This is barely down from the 0.0-degree departure observed during the month of May. After a rapid fall-off of sea surface temperatures from March to April, it appears that temperatures have stabilized at near-normal levels so far this summer," Palmerino wrote in a recent DTN blog item.

From summer through the fall season, the CPC's Dan Collins noted, the very-warm trend of 2016 is set to continue.

"Above-normal temperatures are set throughout the U.S.," he said. The fall outlook also shows generally "equal chances" on precipitation except for above normal in the Northern Plains, below normal in the Delta, and below normal in the Great Basin and northwestern U.S.

Collins does expect to see La Nina form, but much later in the year than earlier anticipated. "La Nina transition is likely from late summer through the fall, and a full onset of La Nina rises to 60%as we approach winter," he said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(AG/CZ)

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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