Future Food GAP Remains

DES MOINES (DTN) -- Despite a large production year in major ag exporting countries, the Global Harvest Initiative warns the rate of agricultural productivity around the world continues to stagnate.

The group's sixth annual Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) report shows the current rate of crop production growth globally is 1.72%, which is below the rate of 1.75% needed annually to meet the global food demand of feeding nearly 9.7 billion people by 2050.

While alerting the world to the need to boost food production, the GAP report this year focused heavily on the United States as a global agricultural powerhouse for its volume of production in proteins, grains, oilseeds and other agricultural sectors. The report states that the U.S. built a more vibrant and resilient agricultural economy following conservation improvements driven by the Dust Bowl era.

"It demonstrates that threats can be overcome but continued commitment and investment are necessary to generate new innovations to conserve soil, water and other precious natural resources, assuring that we are maintaining a sustainable breadbasket based for tomorrow's challenges," stated Margaret Zeigler, executive director of the Global Harvest Initiative.

Focusing globally, the GAP report states the rate of annual productivity growth in low-income countries is only 1.5%. This will translate into higher food prices for people in those countries and require significant food imports and aid. Moreover, the food shortage will cause more marginal and environmentally sensitive land to go into agricultural production, the report warns.

The GAP report highlights parts of the world where food production isn't going to keep pace with the population growth. These regions will need to improve agricultural productivity, but also build out more import infrastructure in coming decades to satisfy their food needs. For instance, the report cites productivity gains in East Asia that project the region will only be able to produce 78% of its expected food demand in 2030. By the same token, Latin America will be producing 117% of its food needs, or effectively have a surplus to export.

Parts of Africa are where the greatest risks lie. By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa will be only able to meet 14% of its own food demand.

In the GAP report, productivity growth is measured as a unit of output per unit of input. It compares gross production in crop and livestock compared to land, labor, fertilizer, feed and equipment used. Improving productivity is a key to reducing commodity prices for consumers while avoiding more land conversion and impact on natural resources.

The new GAP report points out that the percentage of malnourished people globally is falling. Just under one-quarter of the population -- 23.5% -- were malnourished in 1990, but that percentage has fallen to 12.9% in 2014. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reports about 795 million people are food insecure globally. The FAO also reports global food prices in September are down 18.9% from a year ago.

According to the GAP report, however, food production won't keep pace with population growth. As decades advance, that gap in production gets broader, meaning more people going hungry every year.

Global Harvest Initiative also states that despite current food production levels, roughly one-third of children suffer from some nutrient deficiency. About 165 million children around the world are stunted in their development with many facing permanent mental or physical impairment.

Funded by major seed, chemical and equipment companies, the Global Harvest Initiative touts several pro-business agenda items to address global agricultural productivity. The group calls for boosts in public research of long-term agricultural studies and increased national investment in Extension work for farmers. The initiative also wants more countries to embrace technology "along the entire agriculture value chain," including better plant breeding, biotechnology and irrigation efficiency. Farmers, businesses and countries should focus on technology that will reduce the impact of natural resource and minimize waste of food products.

The Global Harvest Initiative also wants countries to encourage the expansion of capital investments for businesses such as buildings, machinery, equipment and rural infrastructure. Moreover, expanded regional and global trade should be encouraged for "ensuring free flow of agricultural goods and services across regions." The Global Harvest Initiative also calls for more investments in agriculture production in poor and developing countries.

The group releases its GAP report each year at the World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogue where roughly 1,500 people gather from around the world specifically to focus the state of global food production. The audience and speakers include a mix of government officials, scientists, farmers and aid groups from the same developing and poorer African and Asian countries where agricultural investments are most needed.

Besides touting the role agriculture plays in the U.S. economy, the report also looked at the boost in Zambia's crop production and food access in south-central Africa. The report highlights Zambia's farm development program to commercialize more agricultural land. That agricultural investment, however, has created conflicts between smallholder farmers and foreign investors coming in buying up larger swaths of land than local farmers can afford to buy. Zambia is investing more in areas such as banking, fertilizer and seed technology to boost production as well.

Global Harvest Initiative is made up of Dupont, Elanco Animal Health, John Deere, Monsanto Co., Mosaic Co and Novozymes. The group also has several consulting partners including 9b Group, ACDI/VOCA, the Congressional Hunger Center, Conservation International, Farm Foundation, GAIN, Inter-American Institute for Cooperative Agriculture, the Inter-American Development Bank, Purdue Agriculture, the Nature Conservancy, New Market Labs, the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute and the World Wildlife Fund.

A full copy of the Global Agricultural Productivity report can be found at http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN

(SK/CZ)

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