DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Potash Lower Once Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Potash prices have hit their lowest level since DTN began collecting retail prices. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to slowly drift lower, according to sellers tracked by DTN for the fifth week of September 2015.

Only one fertilizer type had a price decline of any significance. Potash was down 5% compared to last month with an average price of $450/ton. This is the lowest average potash price in the history of the DTN retail fertilizer prices, which began in November 2008.

The remaining seven major fertilizers were just slightly lower in price compared to a month prior.

DAP had an average price of $561/ton, MAP $573/ton, urea $424/ton, 10-34-0 $594/ton, anhydrous $644/ton, UAN28 $295/ton and UAN32 $342/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.46/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.53/lb.N and UAN32 $0.53/lb.N.

With fluctuating commodity and fertilizer prices, the University of Illinois has revised its 2016 crop budgets. In a farmdoc dailynewsletter titled "Revision to 2016 Crop Budgets: Lower Projected Returns," Gary Schnitkey said crop budgets have significantly changed since June 2015.

The corn and soybean crop budgets estimated for farmland in central Illinois, based on expected lower returns for commodities, showed lower costs for fertilizer, fuel and oil and machinery depreciation.

One area of the crop budgets was adjusted higher. The government farm programs Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) shifted slightly higher.

Fertilizer costs for corn after soybeans were lower from $148 per acre in June to $130 per acre in the September version. The fertilizer costs for soybeans after corn shifted lower from $45 per acre to $35 per acre.

"In the September budgets, operator and land returns are projected at $256 per acre for corn and $195 per acre for soybeans," Schnitkey wrote. "A rotation containing 50% corn and 50% soybean has projected operator and land return of $226 per acre, implying that cash rents should be below $226 per acre for the farm to have a positive return."

The June crop budgets had operator and land returns for corn at $278 per acre and soybeans at $237 per acre.

The farmdoc daily report can be found at http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

Comparing current retail fertilizer prices to year-ago levels, DTN reporting shows only one crop nutrient type, 10-34-0, is higher, up 7% higher from last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to a year ago. DAP is 3% lower, MAP is 4% less expensive, potash 6% lower, anhydrous is 7% lower, UAN32 is 9% less expensive, UAN28 is 10% lower and urea is 18% less expensive from a year previous.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to Nov. of 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014 579 599 478 514
Oct 27-31 2014 579 598 478 503
Nov 24-28 2014 576 595 480 492
Dec 22-26 2014 566 593 485 462
Jan 19-23 2015 568 596 487 469
Feb 16-20 2015 568 597 495 472
Mar 16-20 2015 570 597 490 470
Apr 13-17 2015 570 598 491 453
May 11-15 2015 570 598 491 457
June 8-12 2015 571 598 491 461
July 6-10 2015 570 596 489 470
Aug 3-7 2015 567 591 482 464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015 564 583 471 439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015 561 573 450 424
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014 556 695 328 374
Oct 27-31 2014 558 701 327 373
Nov 24-28 2014 564 712 323 368
Dec 22-26 2014 573 706 320 362
Jan 19-23 2015 585 707 326 367
Feb 16-20 2015 593 706 330 370
Mar 16-20 2015 614 705 332 368
Apr 13-17 2015 649 711 332 370
May 11-15 2015 653 711 331 371
June 8-12 2015 649 709 331 371
July 6-10 2015 640 695 327 366
Aug 3-7 2015 628 677 318 354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015 602 659 304 349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015 594 644 295 342

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(CZ)

Russ Quinn