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As combines crisscross the countryside, the farmers driving them often think about two things: selling the crop in hand and planning for the next.

A preharvest rally in the corn market may have taken some pressure off both of those calculations, but experts will be quick to advise that you must make sales to capture what the market's offering.

While corn prices offer hope for the income side of the profit-margin equation, fertilizer prices continue to challenge the expense side. Alexis Maxwell, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who focuses on fertilizer companies, says fertilizers are a global commodity, and prices reflect events happening far from the farm gate.

She says there are three things on her list to bring prices down to a more manageable level for farmers.

1. Chinese agricultural policy changes. This is one of the most important, but misunderstood, aspects. Before a 2021 ban on exports, China supplied 10% of the world's urea and nearly a third of phosphate exports. China is trying to protect its producers from price shocks by restricting exports. "The bottom line is when China's exporting, prices are falling for those nutrients. And, when China's not exporting, prices are going to move higher," she says.

2. A peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is a high-volume, low-cost producer of fertilizer, particularly nitrogen. While Western sanctions are rerouting global export flows, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil and chemical plants are also cutting into production, although it's difficult to track how much.

3. Free-flowing trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulfur is a key ingredient in fertilizer production, and Maxwell says roughly half of global exports come through the Strait. Global sulfur prices have skyrocketed, and, as a result, companies such as Mosaic are cutting phosphate production.

She says the series of compounding supply shocks will take time to unwind. Prices will take longer to reset as those changes filter through the supply chain. Farmers have deferred some fertilizer purchases, particularly phosphate, during the past five years, and, at some point, they'll need to replenish their soils. The question is: What price point would that take, and how long until we get there?

There is some good news on the fertilizer front, Maxwell explains. Potash has largely escaped the disruption, including the renewed tariff spat with Canada. BHP's Jansen mine is expected to add new Canadian capacity next year, which should create more price competition in the market.

For farmers working on projections for 2027 profitability, it's prudent to build expensive fertilizer into your break-even estimates. Once you know those numbers, a smart marketing plan will help you capture opportunities in the grain market.

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-- You may email Katie at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com, or follow Katie on social platform X @KatieD_DTN

-- Correction: In our September 2026 issue, in the story "From Integration to Specialization," we incorrectly listed Latham Hi-Tech Seeds as the plaintiff of a lawsuit with Bayer. It should have been Latham Quality Inc.
Latham Hi-Tech Seeds is a trademark of M.S. Technologies LLC and is not a party to the lawsuit.
We apologize for the misattribution.

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