We'd Like To Mention

Mention climate change, and you're likely to get reactions ranging from a disbelieving eye roll to an emphatic call to action. Readers of this column have been no exception. It's hard to make a case for or against climate change when conflicting studies provide logically sound conclusions supporting each position.

Few would dispute, however, that weather has become more erratic, and droughts, extreme rainfall and wildfires have become more common. The World Meteorological Organization links the increasing frequency of these disasters to changes in weather patterns and climate change.

Generally speaking, crop yields have been able to weather the storm. Ag's resiliency can be attributed, in part, to advances in genetics and traits, commercial fertilizer and pesticides, and farmers continuing to adapt management and production practices to changing growing environments, resulting in ever-higher productivity.

But, the farmers' ability to adjust may not be enough if the planet continues to warm. According to a study published this past June in Nature, researchers estimate that every additional degree Celsius of global warming on average will drag down the world's ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4% of current daily consumption.

Lead study author Andrew Hultgren, environmental and IO economist at the University of Illinois, says projected losses for U.S. agriculture are especially steep. "Places in the Midwest that are well-suited for present-day corn and soybean production just get hammered under a high-warming future. You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future." (See map accompanying this article.)

He and Solomon Hsiang, a senior author of the study and professor of environmental social sciences at Stanford University, worked with more than a dozen scholars over the past eight years. Their analysis shows winners and losers in agriculture in a warming planet. "We will be sending benefits to producers in Canada, Russia, China. Those are the winners, and we in the U.S. are the losers," he says.

The study draws on observations from more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries. The team analyzed adaptation costs and yields for crops that provide two-thirds of humanity's calories: wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, barley and cassava. Previous studies failed to account for realistic adaptation by farmers, assuming either "perfect" adaptation or none at all. The new study is the first to systematically measure how much farmers adjust to changing conditions by switching varieties, shifting planting/harvesting dates or altering fertilizer use, for example.

The team estimates these adjustments offset about one-third of climate-related losses in the year 2100 if emissions continue to rise, but the rest remain. "Any level of warming, even when accounting for adaptation, results in global output losses from agriculture," Hultgren says.

The analysis finds yield losses may average 41% in the wealthiest regions (breadbaskets that have the best growing conditions) and 28% in the lowest income regions (subsistence farming communities that rely on cassava) by 2100.

The study also modeled future crop yields under a range of warming and adaptation scenarios. The authors estimate global crop yields by 2100 would be dragged down 11% if emissions rapidly plummet to net zero and 24% if emissions continue to rise unchecked.

"Farmers know how to maintain the soil, invest in infrastructure, repair the barn," Hsiang says. "But, if you're letting the climate depreciate, the rest of it is a waste. The land you leave to our kids will be good for something, but not for farming."

You may surmise that this is just another study that supports taking action to thwart the effects of climate change on agriculture. There's likely research that counters its conclusions. The question we all have to answer for ourselves is: Do we roll our eyes or call for action?

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-- Email Gregg Hillyer at gregg.hillyer@dtn.com, or follow Gregg on social platform X @GreggHillyer

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