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La Nina has left and is quickly being replaced by El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean in the month of May. Though it may or may not be already called by some agencies by the time this column is published, temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have quickly made a swing to the warmer side of normal this spring.

The effects of El Nino are less pronounced during the summer season, but history suggests that a developing El Nino from La Nina leads to a return to "normal" weather patterns during the summer season. We are more apt to see thunderstorm complexes developing in the Plains and building as they move eastward. We should also expect bursts of heat at times but not to be long and persistent like they were the last two summers of La Nina.

With a more average look to the summer, the 2023 growing season is expected to produce trend-line or better yields, though there are some caveats. Drought remains in the West and Plains. Some areas of drought could worsen or develop anywhere in the country, depending on where thunderstorms develop and track. There will be haves and have-nots to the weather this season. But, overall, the weather pattern is looking favorable for most of the country.

-- Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho): Frequent precipitation from winter continued in the spring as snowpack built to near-normal levels. Drought remains but has been significantly reduced from the fall season, more in patches and mostly outside of the agricultural areas. This summer looks to be a hotter one for this area, with a more persistent ridge developing. It's not atypical but would be unfavorable for increasing temperatures and producing longer heat waves. Precipitation is forecast to be near or only slightly below average, but the combination with the heat could worsen drought through the summer.

-- Southwest: Heavy precipitation from the winter continued in the spring, and drought has been almost completely eliminated in the region. With temperatures rising, the snowpack in the mountains is melting and producing some areas of flooding, but it's helping the river systems. This summer should feature a semipermanent ridge of high pressure, causing more intense and frequent heat waves. This pattern doesn't typically reduce the impact of the monsoon during the summer, however, and near-normal precipitation is forecast. Still, with the extreme heat, drought may redevelop in spots prior to fall.

-- Northern Plains: A cold and active spring brought plenty of snowfall to the region, which has caused flooding and delayed planting. But, it has also supplied good soil moisture for much of the region. While some drought still exists, it's in few places and not very deep. A return to a normal summer weather pattern should bring frequent-enough rainfall through the region and typical stretches of heat and mildness. Though some areas may miss out, it is impossible to predict exactly where showers may not occur and whether drought develops or worsens in the region.

-- Central and Southern Plains: An active pattern almost completely missed the region during the front half of spring, but has picked up in the latter half, reducing drought in much of the region. However, drought remains a critical issue for most of the region, and even a return to a normal weather pattern should not be enough to eliminate it this summer. Though likely coming at a more frequent pace than the last two years, precipitation is still likely to miss some areas this summer, though it's impossible to know where or when. Those who irrigate should fare better. If rains are frequent enough, though, crops may end up doing just fine even in the drought. History suggests that to be the case, but no two El Nino summers are the same. Heat waves may be a little more likely to occur should the drought remain, and the southern end of the region stands the best chance of seeing that continue.

-- Coastal Texas and Louisiana: A very active pattern over the winter continued through the spring, bringing widespread drought relief to the region. Soils are in relatively good shape to kick off the summer. A normal weather pattern should mean typical summertime thunderstorms and occasional bursts of heat followed by some more seasonable temperatures. The Texas side of the region may end up with more sustained heat, but that chance is only slightly higher than normal.

Midwest: The pattern in the spring continued to be quite active, as the region saw widespread precipitation moving through on a regular basis. Temperatures were mixed at the beginning of the season but turned colder in late April, which caused some late frosts, damage and replanting. For the summer, a normal weather pattern should favor much of the region with regular rainfall, though some areas undoubtedly will be missed more frequently than hit, and some regional drought may develop. Heat waves are likely to come but are also likely to be short-lived. Overall, the weather conditions favor a good season.

-- Delta: The active winter pattern continued in the spring and brought several periods of heavy rain and severe weather. The region is set up nicely for the summertime with good soil moisture. A continued pattern of favorable weather is expected, though there may be sections that miss out more often than are hit. Still, a regular rainfall pattern and lower chances for extended heat waves should favor good crop conditions most of the season.

-- Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: Systems have gone through the region at a somewhat regular pace and have limited drought to only small areas of the region this spring. A regular weather pattern over the summer tends to favor frequent rainy periods and bouts of storms moving through. It's conceivable that drought could either completely wash out or expand, depending on where thunderstorms track during the season. Temperatures are likely to be a touch on the warmer side, which could induce some heat stress at times. But, overall, conditions are still mostly favorable for a good season.

-- Southeast: The region has avoided most of the cold and drought of other areas of the country this spring. Most of the area is drought-free outside of the Florida Peninsula, where showers were less frequent. But, a normal weather pattern favors the typical pop-up thunderstorms in the summer and occasional organized system. The forecast is also for average temperatures, limiting heat stress. The presence of El Nino also reduces the likelihood of tropical storm development in the region except in Florida, where a system may flare up briefly in the hotter Gulf waters.

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