Call the Market
Carcass Weights are Ginormous: 36 Pounds Heavier Than 3-Year Average
In this week's column, I decided to take a deep dive into one of the market's core fundamentals: production and carcass weights.
The week before last, USDA's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending Oct. 18, steer dressed weights averaged 960 pounds. That's a shocking 10 pounds heavier than the previous week, 33 pounds heavier than the same week a year ago and 36 pounds heavier than the market's three-year average.
It may seem bewildering to think of the additional weight compared to years past, but when you put into perspective just how much additional production the industry is processing daily or weekly basis, it's sobering and frankly alarming.
Weekly slaughter data shows that compared to a year ago, the industry has slaughtered 3.8% (or 1,043,956 head) fewer cattle than a year ago. In terms of actual beef production, thus far in 2024, there have been 22,325.4 million pounds of beef processed, down just 0.6% compared to a year ago.
Step back and think about where the industry sits in terms of cow herd numbers. We sit with the fewest number of beef cows in more than 70 years, but our beef production hasn't fallen dramatically because of these ginormous carcass weights. With feed prices cheap, the incentive to feed cattle to these weights isn't going to decrease any time soon.
It may not be problematic right now, but what happens when the U.S. cow herd does begin to rebuild and the trend in heavier cattle weights continues? Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, wrote in one of his Cow-Calf Corner newsletters this summer that, "Carcass weights have trended heavier for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing by an average of 4.0 pounds per year, up over 240 pounds from 660 pounds in the 1960s to over 900 pounds in recent years."
He added, "Carcass weights are further boosted at the current time by decreasing cattle numbers, which increases incentives to feed cattle longer as they try to maintain feedlot inventories. Decreasing corn prices adds additional incentive to feed cattle longer. Kansas feedlot data shows that steers are currently averaging 190 days on feed, up nine days from one year ago and about 40 days longer than a decade ago. Increasing carcass weights are the result of more days on feed combined with changing cattle genetics and use of feeding technology."
I've stressed this point before and will continue to do so, as this could be one of the pivotal factors changing how the industry rebuilds moving forward.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
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