Waiting on China Sales, Pressure Mounts

WAHPETON, N.D. (DTN) -- As North Dakota farmers gear up to harvest fall crops, they are quickly finding there may be little to no room at local elevators to store soybeans.

For Chris Johnson, the reality of global trade disruption translates into watching basis levels widen for local soybeans while wondering where to store an above-average crop. North and South Dakota grain elevators show some of the widest basis in the country ranging from a $1 to $1.70 under the CME price.

"Our soybean basis is terrible. Normally at harvest we'd be about 70 (cents) under," said Johnson, who farms near Wahpeton in the southeastern corner of the state. "This year we're $1.40 under. That tells you they don't want beans. There's just no space."

Johnson was able to deliver 10,000 bushels of soybeans for a contract delivery, but he noted, "If they don't get some shipments in soon, they are just going to stop. They will take beans at harvest until they're full, then they're done."

Soybean farmers were expecting to hear some positive news about China and trade late last week when President Donald Trump talked with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the fate of TikTok and other trade disputes. In the end, nothing about soybeans was publicly mentioned about those Friday talks. November soybeans on the CME ended Monday down 14 1/2 cents while January soybeans were down nearly the same amount.

PLEA TO TRUMP AND XI: MAKE A DEAL

In a normal year, North Dakota farmers would typically load their soybeans as quickly as possible from the field to an elevator and shuttle facility for trains heading to the terminal ports in the Pacific Northwest. But China continues its freeze on buying U.S. soybeans.

"It creates quite a challenge here for farmers across the U.S. because that market is important and it's been a reliable market, but right now in 2025, it's not happening," said Josh Gackle, chairman of the American Soybean Association, who farms near Kulm, N.D. Gackle noted, "We as U.S. farmers are being caught up in a larger geopolitical discussion."

Gackle called on Trump and Xi to sit down and reach a trade agreement to benefit both countries. Without a deal, pressure will continue to mount on the rural economy, he said.

"For most soybean farmers in North Dakota, you're looking at about a $100 to $150 loss per acre on every acre of soybeans planted," Gackle said.

On his own farm, he expects losses could top $400,000 this year.

Gackle said the losses are not just tied to individual farmers. "It's the small businesses, the local grocery stores, hardware stores, our local schools, our financial institutions, they are all feeling the hurt from this."

Gackle was in Washington, D.C., last week talking with lawmakers. Congress is considering another possible aid package after approving $10 billion in economic aid last year. Still, Gackle said farmers want open markets, not aid checks.

Some markets also are impossible to replace, regardless of other trade deals that might be announced.

"We're always looking to find new markets, expand markets, but China just being the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, you can't replace that," Gackle said. "That China market was built over 40 years. You can't replace it in a month or six weeks."

STORAGE PRESSURE AND BASIS PAIN

Grain storage was already going to be a pressure point for North Dakota farmers going into harvest after a derecho in June destroyed tens of millions of bushels of grain storage in the state.

Johnson farms in Richland County, just miles from where the Red River begins. He noted nearby processors are only bidding what they need because "they can only grind so much." While new plants are coming online, the market right now highlights that soybeans face space and storage problems without those early Chinese shipments.

"We've got processing plants 15 miles either way," Johnson said. "But once the bins and elevators are full, they're not taking any more. Basis is going to get worse."

That storage crunch is forcing tough decisions: store soybeans or corn?

"Normally, we haul beans to town and store the corn. This year we may have to do the opposite," Johnson said.

Corn yields also could hit 200 bushels per acre (bpa) in Johnson's area -- well above state averages. But he's racing against time.

Johnson had worried about frost affecting his harvest window, but the next two weeks appear like he will avoid that concern. After getting a couple of inches of rain late last week, Johnson said Monday he could use some wind to dry out fields, but the forecast appears to avoid any frost issues in the short term.

"Our normal frost date is around Sept. 25," he said. "The beans will make it, but corn could get dinged. Then you've got wet corn, which is harder to handle."

Corn harvest will follow, weather permitting. And storage decisions -- whether in his bins, at local processors, or contracted farther down the road -- will shape his fall.

"It's a good problem to have -- too much production," Johnson said with a laugh. "But it still creates a lot of headaches."

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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