2025 Digital Yield Tour - Indiana

DECATUR, Ill. (DTN) -- Like much of the Midwest this year, a road trip through Indiana corn and soybean country this August leaves an impression of a big crop.

On Aug. 1, DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegged Indiana corn at 206.1 bushels per acre (bpa). That's 10 bpa over DTN's 2024 projected yield and 1.5 bpa above RMA's five-year average. For soybeans, a 60.5 bpa estimate is slightly above the 2024 DTN estimate of 58.7 bpa and slightly below RMA's five-year estimate of 62.0 bpa.

A closer look reveals much of the Hoosier state struggled to get planted in a timely fashion due to excessive rainfall. Other areas missed doses of vital moisture, and a band across the northern portion of the state remained on the National Drought Monitor most of the summer. Add heat and sweaty nighttime conditions across the entire geography.

There are corn pollination issues, thanks to tassels that were wrapped up tight and silks that came too early to the party. Now, late-season diseases are showing up in both corn and soybeans.

"Indiana is all over the board this year," said Dan Quinn, Purdue's Extension corn specialist. "We often see differences from top to bottom in the state. This year, the southern half of the state was too wet, and areas in the north were too dry.

"But, in many cases, we've also seen a lot of challenges west to east this year. Those eastern soils are always a bit more challenging in that they don't drain as well," he said.

The big question right now is density and how this crop will finish, Quinn said.

"We'll see how grain fill goes. It's hard to tell right now what is out there unless you walk into the field and pull a bunch of ears. If these high temperatures persist, that could really impact the weight and depth of kernels," he added.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 206.1 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 196 bpa

-- RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 204.6 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 60.5 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 58.7 bpa

-- RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 62.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Of all the states in our tour this year, Indiana's may be the most interesting, and frustrating to a lot of producers in the state," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "It started with patchy drought in the middle of the state and intense rain near the Ohio River in early April, which saw double-digit rainfall totals over a five-day period. The rains continued across the south in May and likely led to some late plantings. In contrast, rain skipped past northern areas of the state in mid-May and early June, leading to some droughty conditions. Those were pushed back a bit by an active weather pattern, but the state really couldn't get too far ahead. Patchy, heavy rain has fallen across the state since then, but there has been a lot more hit-and-miss to the storms than in other areas of the Corn Belt," Baranick said.

"Heat has also been dramatic and arrived right around pollination time in July. In fact, July was the 16th warmest out of the last 133 in Indiana, only outdone by Ohio on our crop tour, which had the 11th warmest July. Sporadic rainfall and consistent heat may lead to some production issues, especially if it continues here in August."

MARKET COMMENTS

"Entering August, 62% of the Indiana corn crop was rated good to excellent, according to USDA, compared with 70% a year ago," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "Northern Indiana struggled with some dryness in June, but July saw the rains really pick up, likely aiding the crop through pollination. An Indiana yield just above the five-year average appears reasonable given timely rainfall, but I do remain cautious, as Indiana had been one of the more worrisome states among the major corn producers in the U.S. through the early growing season," he said.

"An Indiana soybean yield just below the five-year average would certainly align with USDA crop conditions as of early August, which are just a touch lower than the five-year average in both good-to-excellent and poor-to-very-poor categories. Dryness across the north-central part of the state has been alleviated somewhat in recent weeks but will be an area to watch through August should rainfall disappoint."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension corn specialist:

Dan Quinn looks at a lot of corn as the Purdue University Extension corn specialist for Indiana. This year he's having trouble crunching the monster yield expectations being estimated for the state.

"I don't see Indiana at record state yield average this year just because of the variability," Quinn said. Soybeans look good, but he said disease could be a factor in how the crop ultimately fares.

South, southeast, eastern and some central portions of the state had a lot of June planting and replanting, he noted. "Parts of northwest Indiana really struggled with planting and then went through a dry spell. They've come out of it somewhat, but there are still some tough areas." Western Indiana from Lafayette to Terre Haute and farther south hold the best yield potential, in his opinion.

Corn diseases also have him concerned. Southern rust has come on strong in recent weeks. Tar spot detections are heating up, and gray leaf spot is a frequent troublemaker.

"I had a diagnostic sample come through the lab last week from a farm, and it had six confirmed diseases," he said. In July, Quinn said he fielded calls from farmers who were worried that 6 to 10 inches of rain had taken a toll on nitrogen. Pockets near Kokomo and Tipton had big rain events that stressed crops and compromised root systems, he noted.

"It's really challenging to quantify how good the crop is going to be as a composite because it is all over the place with conditions," he said.

Tassel wrap -- a condition where a leaf remains wrapped around the tassel and restricts pollen flow -- was a real thing, Quinn said. He also observed that modern-day hybrids silk slightly earlier and can cause pollination problems if tassel emergence is also delayed.

"I walked fields last week where I had identified tassel wrap earlier in the season, and there were missing kernels at the base of the ear. I also see tip back occurring as we continue to have high temperatures and high nighttime temperatures," he said.

"This corn crop is working hard and burning more energy, and that influences grain fill," Quinn added.

Soybeans faced many of the same challenges as corn, such as drowned-out areas and poor root systems, he reported.

"Fungicides were a tougher decision this year, given crop prices. The multiple mode of action products are pricey, so some farmers did move to lower-cost products," Quinn said.

"I think a lot of farmers worked hard to get the timing right, knowing fungicides only work for a period of time and hoping for a single application," he said.

-- Chris Campbell, Franklin, Indiana:

It was a challenging planting season for Chris and Jennifer Campbell in the central part of Indiana where they farm with their son, Cole, in Johnson County.

They planted about 30% of their corn and 20% of their soybeans in April. Rains locked them out of almost all field activity through May. What did get planted in May was subjected to heavy rains, which hurt yield potential.

"The bulk of the crop in this area went in the first week of June," said Campbell. "Then, we were sidelined another few weeks. In this area, planting went on until July 1. We finished on June 24 on our farm."

A few prevented planting acres are sprinkled about the area, but most farmers made a last-minute push to finish, he noted. Double-crop soybeans went in around July 8-9, a smidge later than he likes. "They are struggling and need rain," Campbell said.

Overall, he said the crop looks good considering the early planting troubles. "We've had rainfall, but our soils don't have an overabundance of holding capacity. We still need timely rains, and we will need rain all the way through September to finish the bean crop," he noted.

"Due to planting date and some other challenges to the crop, I believe our crop will be under last year. But last year was pretty good," he added. "I expect we'll be over our 10-year average or close to it."

Variability is the word of the year in the area. "Things look pretty good, but I think there's more issues inside the crop than what we're seeing," Campbell added.

"I wouldn't call this the hottest summer I've ever seen. When we kept hogs, we could always tell a big difference between 90-degree days and 95-degree days. We didn't have those 95-degree days that some had," he said.

The corn is tall, and ear set is high. April-planted corn began tasseling on July 1. Corn planted on June 1 was tasseling by July 15. But the crop planted in late June is just now starting to tassel, Campbell said.

The Campbells missed the worst of the heat and aren't overly concerned about pollination. They treat every corn acre with fungicide. The state had tar spot identified in every county in 2024. Southern rust and gray leaf spot are also on their radar.

Indiana's 2024 corn yield of 198 bpa may be attainable this year, but the late-planted crop still holds questions. "If it turns off dry, we'll probably be closer to 190 bpa," Campbell said.

"When my dad was farming, he thought all about pollination and ear size. But we've learned these new genetics have a third component, and that's kernel depth. That requires keeping that plant alive longer and getting the weather to do that," he said.

-- Scott Wallis, Princeton, Indiana:

It got hot in southern Indiana this year, and Scott Wallis' crop felt the heat.

"I don't think we have any pollination issues, but we have seen some aborted kernels. We had a stretch of dry in late June and early July that took a toll," said Wallis.

Corn planted in May seems to have more kernels around than April-planted corn, though. "Some of the May corn is just turning from blister and going into milk stage. There's still time for some kernel abortion if we don't finish right," he said on Aug. 6.

Wallis, who farms with his son, J.R., planted a percentage of their corn in April into good conditions before the weather turned wet and cold.

Most of the rest of the corn got planted from May 15 to May 24. The corn always seems to grow tall in this part of southern Indiana, but stalk height has been remarkable this year, Wallis said.

"That May corn had the heat units and really elongated between nodes. There's a lot of it 12 to 13 feet tall," he noted. Fortunately, Wallis Farm fields mostly sidestepped the big wind events that swirled around the area this season.

"If our May corn finishes out strong, it could be a solid finish for the farm, but I'd be shocked if it is a record crop. I think maybe more like last year, which is the second-best crop we've ever raised," he said.

Wallis noted that the April-planted corn has already dented but was not yet showing a milk line, which raises questions of dry matter accumulation in that planting.

"I start to worry here when it stays hot at night, especially if it doesn't drop below 80 degrees. We haven't had much of that, but we had a bunch of nights where it didn't get under 75 degrees," he said. Wallis said being situated between three rivers has been a good buffer for the crop, although they did lose a few acres to flooding.

"Our corn today (Aug. 6), from the road looks way better than it did a year ago. However, when you get out in it and start looking, I think it is going to be a struggle to be as good as it was a year ago," he said.

Soybeans put on plenty of nodes and are carrying lots of pods, he reported.

"Every year there's a bigger percentage of soybeans planted here before May 1, and overall, that's pushing yields upwards. But soybeans are always a guessing game. If we get rains through August, they could be good," he said.

-- Brian Scott, Monticello, Indiana:

The planting season was near perfect for Brian Scott, who farms near Monticello in Carroll and White counties.

"We started around April 20 and were done by May 12," said Scott. Soils tend to be sandy in this northwestern part of Indiana. Both counties fell into the abnormally dry category on the National Drought Monitor for much of the season.

"We had little to no snow through the winter and came into the season pretty dry," he recalled. "We've managed to hang in there, and rains have spoon fed just enough moisture for the crop to keep going. However, there's been nothing extra, and we'll need a few more rains to finish out the season."

Pulling ears in early August, Scott found some pollination problems that concerned him. Hot overnight temperatures looked to have taken a toll, especially in a strip-cropped field of alternating corn and soybeans.

Going back to check that poorly pollinated field and the same area of the field a week later, he was pleasantly surprised to find the crop had mostly recovered and kernels had filled out. "I'm not sure it was the strip cropping practice as much as that is an area we planted in April. It probably went through pollination a week before we got a couple of inches of rain.

"We are seeing a little more tip back than last year and a little more than I might like, but nothing crazy," he said.

Scott said he noticed some hybrids did develop silks significantly ahead of tassels this year. About half of his corn crop is waxy corn, and he was seeing some tip back in those hybrids. He also raises popcorn but has seen no pollination problems in that crop.

Getting above the crop starts to tell the tale of the differences in water-holding capacity of different soils. "Here, the crop seems to vary a lot from field-to-field and even within fields," he said.

Southern rust and Western bean cutworm are the potential threats he was watching for in early August. Like many, he noted that the corn crop is tall. Ear set is extremely high this year. Stalk quality is a concern as harvest approaches.

"We don't need any big wind events in this crop," he said. Soybeans just need continued rains to finish.

**

Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/….

Pamela Smith can be reached at pamela.smith@dtn.com

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