DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the first time in eight weeks, multiple average retail fertilizer prices showed considerable declines during the second week of September 2024, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month. In addition, three fertilizers had sizeable price declines. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Potash led the way lower, down 8% from a month ago, with an average price of $464. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 were 7% less expensive with 10-34-0 having an average price of $596 per ton and UAN32 $351/ton. 10-34-0 was below the $600/ton level for the first since the first week of January 2024. That week the average price was $599/ton.

Four other fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $735/ton, MAP $808/ton, urea $489/ton and UAN28 $329/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly more expensive. Anhydrous had an average price of $684/ton, up $6 per ton from last month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.53/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.59/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

Rabobank recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook. As one might expect, the outlook is less than positive for nutrient prices.

The company's fertilizer affordability index, which incorporates fertilizer and commodity prices, was 0.03 in July 2024, down from 0.07 in the previous update in May 2024. Right now, the index is considered neutral at 0.00.

For the nitrogen and the potash index, there is some stability, moving slightly lower from 0.02 to -0.02, remaining in the neutral range. However, the affordability of phosphate worsened from May to July 2024. The global phosphate affordability index fell from -0.04 to -0.19.

And there are signals that more drops are coming in fertilizer affordability.

"In the coming months, projections indicate a downward price trend for some commodities," the report stated. "Combined with expected shifts in fertilizer prices, this has the potential to push the affordability index back into negative territory."

DTN wrote in more detail about Rabobank's semiannual fertilizer outlook last week (https://www.dtnpf.com/…).

Prices for all except two fertilizers are lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 4% higher while MAP is 9% higher looking back to last year.

Prices for the remaining six fertilizers are lower. 10-34-0 is 1% lower, anhydrous is 2% less expensive, both potash and UAN28 are 7% lower, UAN32 is 10% lower and urea is 12% lower compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A Canadian potash company announced it has entered into an agreement to purchase potash processing equipment. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 11-15 2023	710	742	500	554
Oct 9-13 2023	711	794	506	575
Nov 6-10 2023	714	802	509	573
Dec 4-8 2023	713	820	516	543
Jan 1-5 2024	725	812	513	534
Jan 29-Feb 2 2024	735	809	509	527
Feb 26-Mar 1 2024	756	812	505	536
Mar 25-29 2024	779	827	513	576
Apr 22-26 2024	781	830	513	585
May 20-24 2024	783	829	509	555
Jun 17-21 2024	778	827	507	510
Jul 15-19 2024	756	821	503	506
Aug 12-16 2024	745	817	501	500
Sep 9-13 2024	735	808	464	489
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 11-15 2023	600	696	353	389
Oct 9-13 2023	613	804	356	418
Nov 6-10 2023	613	830	360	415
Dec 4-8 2023	595	847	340	409
Jan 1-5 2024	599	789	336	394
Jan 29-Feb 2 2024	610	770	334	390
Feb 26-Mar 1 2024	615	769	341	394
Mar 25-29 2024	632	794	360	404
Apr 22-26 2024	641	794	364	418
May 20-24 2024	642	781	359	418
Jun 17-21 2024	642	705	350	389
Jul 15-19 2024	642	696	339	377
Aug 12-16 2024	640	678	337	376
Sep 9-13 2024	596	684	329	351

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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