DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

3 Fertilizer Prices Down Significantly in Second Week of September

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Potash led most fertilizer prices lower, down 8% from a month ago, with an average price of $464 during the second week of September 2024, according to DTN data. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the first time in eight weeks, multiple average retail fertilizer prices showed considerable declines during the second week of September 2024, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month. In addition, three fertilizers had sizeable price declines. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Potash led the way lower, down 8% from a month ago, with an average price of $464. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 were 7% less expensive with 10-34-0 having an average price of $596 per ton and UAN32 $351/ton. 10-34-0 was below the $600/ton level for the first since the first week of January 2024. That week the average price was $599/ton.

Four other fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $735/ton, MAP $808/ton, urea $489/ton and UAN28 $329/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly more expensive. Anhydrous had an average price of $684/ton, up $6 per ton from last month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.53/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.59/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

Rabobank recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook. As one might expect, the outlook is less than positive for nutrient prices.

The company's fertilizer affordability index, which incorporates fertilizer and commodity prices, was 0.03 in July 2024, down from 0.07 in the previous update in May 2024. Right now, the index is considered neutral at 0.00.

For the nitrogen and the potash index, there is some stability, moving slightly lower from 0.02 to -0.02, remaining in the neutral range. However, the affordability of phosphate worsened from May to July 2024. The global phosphate affordability index fell from -0.04 to -0.19.

And there are signals that more drops are coming in fertilizer affordability.

"In the coming months, projections indicate a downward price trend for some commodities," the report stated. "Combined with expected shifts in fertilizer prices, this has the potential to push the affordability index back into negative territory."

DTN wrote in more detail about Rabobank's semiannual fertilizer outlook last week (https://www.dtnpf.com/…).

Prices for all except two fertilizers are lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 4% higher while MAP is 9% higher looking back to last year.

Prices for the remaining six fertilizers are lower. 10-34-0 is 1% lower, anhydrous is 2% less expensive, both potash and UAN28 are 7% lower, UAN32 is 10% lower and urea is 12% lower compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A Canadian potash company announced it has entered into an agreement to purchase potash processing equipment. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA

Sep 11-15 2023

710

742

500

554

Oct 9-13 2023

711

794

506

575

Nov 6-10 2023

714

802

509

573

Dec 4-8 2023

713

820

516

543

Jan 1-5 2024

725

812

513

534

Jan 29-Feb 2 2024

735

809

509

527

Feb 26-Mar 1 2024

756

812

505

536

Mar 25-29 2024

779

827

513

576

Apr 22-26 2024

781

830

513

585

May 20-24 2024

783

829

509

555

Jun 17-21 2024

778

827

507

510

Jul 15-19 2024

756

821

503

506

Aug 12-16 2024

745

817

501

500

Sep 9-13 2024

735

808

464

489

LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32

Sep 11-15 2023

600

696

353

389

Oct 9-13 2023

613

804

356

418

Nov 6-10 2023

613

830

360

415

Dec 4-8 2023

595

847

340

409

Jan 1-5 2024

599

789

336

394

Jan 29-Feb 2 2024

610

770

334

390

Feb 26-Mar 1 2024

615

769

341

394

Mar 25-29 2024

632

794

360

404

Apr 22-26 2024

641

794

364

418

May 20-24 2024

642

781

359

418

Jun 17-21 2024

642

705

350

389

Jul 15-19 2024

642

696

339

377

Aug 12-16 2024

640

678

337

376

Sep 9-13 2024

596

684

329

351

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn