DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Six Fertilizers Lead Prices Lower Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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DAP retail prices were slightly higher in the fourth week of January 2024 compared to one month ago with an average price of $734/ton. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of January 2024 were mostly lower.

For the fifth straight week, six of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price compared to last month; the remaining two fertilizers were slightly higher. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

One difference this week is that none of the fertilizer prices tracked was up or down a significant amount.

Six fertilizers were down just slightly from the prior month. MAP had an average price of $809/ton, potash $509/ton, urea $527/ton, anhydrous $770/ton, UAN28 $335/ton and UAN32 $390/ton.

Two fertilizers, meanwhile, were just slightly higher in price compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $734/ton and 10-34-0 $610/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.57/lb.N, anhydrous $0.47/lb.N, UAN28 $0.60/lb.N and UAN32 $0.61/lb.N.

In this column, we normally compare fertilizer prices to one month ago and one year ago. I wondered what the data would show if we compared the latest week to six months ago, the fourth week of July 2023.

As one would expect, most of the retail fertilizer prices for the fourth week of January 2024 are lower than six months ago. But not all fertilizer prices are less expensive.

The fertilizer with the largest decline in this six-month time frame is 10-34-0. Starter fertilizer was $715/ton last summer and now it is $610/ton, a difference of $105/ton.

Potash was another fertilizer with a decent drop in price. Last summer the average price was $594/ton and last week the price was $509/ton, a drop of $85/ton.

DAP was at $795/ton last July and $734/ton last week, a drop of $61/ton. Urea was at $581/ton last summer and $527/ton last week, a decline of $54/ton.

Other declines in fertilizer prices include UAN32 ($442/ton six months ago and $390/ton last week) with a drop of $52/ton and UAN28 ($383/ton six months ago and $335/ton last week) with a decline of $48/ton.

Two fertilizers increased in price during this time. Anhydrous was $691/ton six months ago and $770/ton last week, a healthy rise of $79/ton. MAP was $791/ton last summer and $809/ton last week, a slight increase of $18/ton.

The market factors affecting fertilizer prices are numerous and varied, leading one fertilizer price to fall $100 per ton, while another was up nearly $80 per ton in the six-month time frame.

All fertilizers except one are now lower by double-digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 7% lower, DAP is 14% less expensive, 10-34-0 is 19% lower, urea is 26% less expensive, potash is 29% lower, UAN28 is 36% less expensive and both anhydrous and UAN32 are 38% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

USDA will invest $207 million in renewable energy and domestic fertilizer projects, according to a USDA press release. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 855 865 714 708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 836 834 673 666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 821 812 645 627
Apr 17-21 2023 826 812 643 626
May 15-19 2023 829 831 627 619
June 12-16 2023 823 832 621 624
July 10-14 2023 811 823 614 609
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023 758 764 566 576
Sep 4-8 2023 738 745 518 563
Oct 2-6 2023 705 791 508 573
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023 713 801 508 573
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023 715 820 518 552
Dec 25-29 2023 721 812 514 536
Jan 22-26 2024 734 809 509 527
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 754 1237 523 630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 741 1124 470 554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 740 1036 429 514
Apr 17-21 2023 740 995 423 507
May 15-19 2023 739 895 421 514
June 12-16 2023 737 781 406 476
July 10-14 2023 730 734 393 465
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023 714 634 369 400
Sep 4-8 2023 611 693 356 390
Oct 2-6 2023 609 790 354 414
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023 611 826 358 415
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023 595 847 341 409
Dec 25-29 2023 599 792 340 394
Jan 22-26 2024 610 770 335 390

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com.

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Russ Quinn