DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices closed out 2023 mixed, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for six of the eight major fertilizers were lower in the fourth week of December compared to last month, while prices for the remaining two fertilizers were slightly higher.

Only one fertilizer had a notable price move, which DTN designates as 5% or more. Anhydrous was down 7% compared to last month with an average price of $792 per ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were down just slightly down. MAP had an average price of $812 per ton, potash $514/ton, urea $536/ton, UAN28 $340/ton and UAN32 $394/ton.

UAN32 dropped below the $400-per-ton level for the first time since the second week of September 2023. That week UAN32 had an average price of $389/ton.

Two fertilizers, meanwhile, were just slightly higher in price compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $721/ton and 10-34-0 $599/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.58/lb.N, anhydrous $0.48/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.62/lb.N.

In a year-end article of issues affecting agriculture, University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service examined some of the changes in crop prices and input costs seen in 2023 (https://www.uaex.uada.edu/…). Among the subjects covered was the decline in price of fertilizer.

Fertilizer prices fell across North American by about 34% from January to July 2023, according to Hunter Biram, Extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

"This is because it was a relatively warmer year than 2023 compared to 2022, which eased demand pressure on natural gas, a key input in the production of nitrogenous and phosphorous fertilizer," Biram said.

In the south-central U.S. (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee), urea fell 31% year-on-year, while DAP dropped about 40%. Potash fell 41% during this time.

All fertilizers but one are now lower compared to one year ago: MAP by 9%, DAP 19%, 10-34-0 by 20%, urea 29%, potash 33%, anhydrous 40%, UAN28 41% and UAN32 42%.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The situation with natural gas in Europe is considerably different heading into winter this year compared to last year, according to Dow Jones. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

If you missed seeing the DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series in December, you can access it at the following links:

"Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Supply, Demand Outlook Generally Favorable," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

"Lower Prices, More Demand Globally Thanks to Increased Phosphorus Fertilizer Supplies," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

"Positive Potash Outlook Seen With Lower Prices, More Global Demand, Higher Supply," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	885	891	765	751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	855	865	714	708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	836	834	673	666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	821	812	645	627
Apr 17-21 2023	826	812	643	626
May 15-19 2023	829	831	627	619
June 12-16 2023	823	832	621	624
July 10-14 2023	811	823	614	609
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	758	764	566	576
Sep 4-8 2023	738	745	518	563
Oct 2-6 2023	705	791	508	573
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	713	801	508	573
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023	715	820	518	552
Dec 25-29 2023	721	812	514	536
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	751	1325	573	679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	754	1237	523	630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	741	1124	470	554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	740	1036	429	514
Apr 17-21 2023	740	995	423	507
May 15-19 2023	739	895	421	514
June 12-16 2023	737	781	406	476
July 10-14 2023	730	734	393	465
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	714	634	369	400
Sep 4-8 2023	611	693	356	390
Oct 2-6 2023	609	790	354	414
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	611	826	358	415
Nov 27-Dec 1 2023	595	847	341	409
Dec 25-29 2023	599	792	340	394

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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