DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September 2023 are showing a more pronounced split as some prices rise and others fall.

For the first time in many months, multiple fertilizers were higher in price. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Five of the eight major fertilizers were more expensive compared to last month. Of the five, three fertilizers had a considerable price increase.

Anhydrous was 13% higher compared to last month with an average price of $767/ton. Both MAP and UAN32 were 6% more expensive looking back a month. MAP had an average price of $777/ton while UAN32 was at $413/ton

The two remaining fertilizers had slightly higher prices compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $570/ton and 10-34-0 was at $610/ton.

Three fertilizers were lower compared to the prior month, albeit just slightly lower. DAP had an average price of $703/ton, potash $508/ton and UAN28 $353/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.47/lb.N, UAN28 $0.63/lb.N, and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

In a recent Farmdoc Daily article from the University of Illinois Extension, nitrogen prices over the last 15 years were discussed in detail (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…). As one might imagine, nitrogen prices in Illinois over this time saw much price variability.

While price variability was seen in the past, the last two years have logged huge nitrogen price spikes and falls. Since 2020, the price reported in the USDA AMS Illinois fertilizer reports has averaged $193/ton and exceeded $500/ton over multiple weeks in both 2022 and 2023.

"Variability was also relatively higher during the period of sharp fertilizer price declines from late 2008 through 2009 with an average price range of $160/ton," according to the report. "Variability was lower from 2010 through 2019 with an average price of $76/ton."

The timing of nitrogen variability was discussed. The historical data available from USDA-AMS suggests variability around average nitrogen prices can be more pronounced during periods of quickly adjusting markets -- when average prices are rising or falling at a relatively fast pace.

"This has important implications for farmers as they make pricing and purchasing decisions, particularly during periods of fast market adjustment," the report said. "To the extent possible, soliciting price quotes for nitrogen fertilizer products, as well as other inputs, from multiple sources is advised."

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to a year ago. DAP is 23% lower; MAP is 26% less expensive; 10-34-0 is 29% lower; urea is 30% less expensive; UAN32 is 38% lower; UAN28 is 39% less expensive; potash is 42% lower and anhydrous is 44% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A recent Iowa State University Extension press release details some of the do's and don'ts in applying anhydrous ammonia in the fall. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 26-30 2022	947	1005	874	812
Oct 24-28 2022	930	986	862	827
Nov 21-25 2022	927	972	841	802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	890	909	790	757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	859	865	721	712
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	838	857	692	686
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	825	821	655	638
Apr 10-14 2023	821	809	642	625
May 8-12 2023	828	826	627	664
June 5-9 2023	822	832	618	622
July 3-7 2023	824	827	619	615
July 31-Aug 4 2023	766	773	579	572
Aug 28-Sep 1 2023	730	736	518	563
Sep 25-29 2023	703	777	508	570
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 26-30 2022	861	1380	581	670
Oct 24-28 2022	759	1422	580	678
Nov 21-25 2022	753	1419	583	681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	751	1360	578	681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	755	1238	536	634
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	754	1213	483	572
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	740	1059	428	521
Apr 10-14 2023	740	1003	427	507
May 8-12 2023	739	910	423	517
June 5-9 2023	739	787	411	478
July 3-7 2023	730	752	396	466
July 31-Aug 4 2023	713	638	378	411
Aug 28-Sep 1 2023	607	680	355	391
Sep 25-29 2023	610	767	353	413

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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