DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue their decline, according to sellers tracked by DTN for the third week of June 2023. This trend has been in place for more than six months now.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price compared to last month. Two fertilizers were noticeably less expensive. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

UAN32 was 8% less expensive compared to the prior month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price was $471/ton. Anhydrous was 5% lower looking back to last month with an average price of $755/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $825/ton, MAP $827/ton, potash $618/ton, urea $619/ton, 10-34-0 $734/ton and UAN28 $402/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.67/lb.N, anhydrous $0.46/lb.N, UAN28 $0.72/lb.N and UAN32 $0.74/lb.N.

Agricultural economists took a closer look at nitrogen fertilizer prices in a recent University of Illinois Farmdoc Daily article titled "Weekly Farm Economics: Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Stabilize at High Levels in Spring of 2023" from June 13. (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…)

It argues fundamental factors suggest prices will drop, but time will tell if these declines occur.

Recent declines in nitrogen prices should be kept in perspective as current prices are still at high levels, according to the report. From 2009 to 2020, ammonia prices averaged $637/ton.

"Some farmers' per-acre nitrogen costs will be higher in 2023 than in 2022," the report stated. "Sub-$1,000 prices did not exist during the fertilizer pricing window for 2023 production."

Farmers' attention will soon turn toward input purchases for the 2024 growing season.

Nitrogen prices could be lower as corn and natural gas prices have moved lower. Natural gas has declined from above-normal price levels late last year to below-average price levels in the late spring of 2023, according to the report.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 19% less expensive, DAP is 21% lower, MAP is 22% less expensive, potash is 30% lower, urea is 31% less expensive, UAN32 is 34% lower, UAN28 is 35% less expensive and anhydrous is 50% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The issue of Mississippi River lower water levels continues, which could affect fertilizer movement and thus price. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	1040	1058	885	902
Jul 18-22 2022	1007	1043	887	836
Aug 15-19 2022	978	1026	881	807
Sep 12-16 2022	952	1009	877	808
Oct 10-14 2022	925	986	863	824
Nov 7-11 2022	931	980	853	812
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	920	950	819	784
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	876	879	752	739
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	847	862	704	698
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023	827	827	666	648
Mar 27-31 2023	818	810	644	626
Apr 24-28 2023	827	804	624	595
May 22-26 2023	834	832	624	623
June 19-23 2023	825	827	618	619
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022	905	1497	616	716
Jul 18-22 2022	894	1431	598	696
Aug 15-19 2022	878	1336	576	676
Sep 12-16 2022	861	1369	578	665
Oct 10-14 2022	759	1417	576	670
Nov 7-11 2022	758	1434	582	680
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022	751	1415	581	681
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023	754	1302	573	673
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023	754	1223	518	583
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023	741	1077	444	525
Mar 27-31 2023	741	1026	428	513
Apr 24-28 2023	740	928	426	508
May 22-26 2023	739	798	419	509
June 19-23 2023	734	755	402	471

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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