DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Nitrogen Products Lead Retail Fertilizer Prices Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price of UAN28 was $402/ton in the third week of June 2023. That's about 4% lower than last month and 35% below last year's price. (DTN Chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue their decline, according to sellers tracked by DTN for the third week of June 2023. This trend has been in place for more than six months now.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price compared to last month. Two fertilizers were noticeably less expensive. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

UAN32 was 8% less expensive compared to the prior month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price was $471/ton. Anhydrous was 5% lower looking back to last month with an average price of $755/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $825/ton, MAP $827/ton, potash $618/ton, urea $619/ton, 10-34-0 $734/ton and UAN28 $402/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.67/lb.N, anhydrous $0.46/lb.N, UAN28 $0.72/lb.N and UAN32 $0.74/lb.N.

Agricultural economists took a closer look at nitrogen fertilizer prices in a recent University of Illinois Farmdoc Daily article titled "Weekly Farm Economics: Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Stabilize at High Levels in Spring of 2023" from June 13. (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…)

It argues fundamental factors suggest prices will drop, but time will tell if these declines occur.

Recent declines in nitrogen prices should be kept in perspective as current prices are still at high levels, according to the report. From 2009 to 2020, ammonia prices averaged $637/ton.

"Some farmers' per-acre nitrogen costs will be higher in 2023 than in 2022," the report stated. "Sub-$1,000 prices did not exist during the fertilizer pricing window for 2023 production."

Farmers' attention will soon turn toward input purchases for the 2024 growing season.

Nitrogen prices could be lower as corn and natural gas prices have moved lower. Natural gas has declined from above-normal price levels late last year to below-average price levels in the late spring of 2023, according to the report.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 19% less expensive, DAP is 21% lower, MAP is 22% less expensive, potash is 30% lower, urea is 31% less expensive, UAN32 is 34% lower, UAN28 is 35% less expensive and anhydrous is 50% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The issue of Mississippi River lower water levels continues, which could affect fertilizer movement and thus price. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022 1040 1058 885 902
Jul 18-22 2022 1007 1043 887 836
Aug 15-19 2022 978 1026 881 807
Sep 12-16 2022 952 1009 877 808
Oct 10-14 2022 925 986 863 824
Nov 7-11 2022 931 980 853 812
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022 920 950 819 784
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023 876 879 752 739
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023 847 862 704 698
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023 827 827 666 648
Mar 27-31 2023 818 810 644 626
Apr 24-28 2023 827 804 624 595
May 22-26 2023 834 832 624 623
June 19-23 2023 825 827 618 619
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022 905 1497 616 716
Jul 18-22 2022 894 1431 598 696
Aug 15-19 2022 878 1336 576 676
Sep 12-16 2022 861 1369 578 665
Oct 10-14 2022 759 1417 576 670
Nov 7-11 2022 758 1434 582 680
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022 751 1415 581 681
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023 754 1302 573 673
Jan 30-Feb 3 2023 754 1223 518 583
Feb 27-Mar 3 2023 741 1077 444 525
Mar 27-31 2023 741 1026 428 513
Apr 24-28 2023 740 928 426 508
May 22-26 2023 739 798 419 509
June 19-23 2023 734 755 402 471

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn