DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Anhydrous Fertilizer Price Drops Below $1,000 Per Ton for the First Time Since October 2021

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price for anhydrous has dropped below $1,000 per ton. This is the first time prices have been before $1,000 per ton since the fourth week of October 2021. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most retail fertilizer prices continued to shift lower the third week of April 2023, according to retailers tracked by DTN. However, for the first time in several months, multiple fertilizers were slightly higher.

One fertilizer achieved a significant milestone that has not been seen in about a year and a half.

Six of the eight major fertilizer prices were lower compared to last month, although none fell a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

These six fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $643 per ton, urea $626/ton, 10-34-0 $740/ton, anhydrous $995/ton, UAN28 $423/ton and UAN32 $507/ton.

Multiple fertilizers were higher in price for the first time since the fourth week of November 2022. DAP and MAP were both up just slightly with DAP having an average price of $826/ton while MAP is at $812/ton.

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On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.61/lb.N, UAN28 $0.76/lb.N and UAN32 $0.79/lb.N.

The notable milestone in last week's prices was set by anhydrous, with an average price of $995/ton. This marks the first time the nitrogen fertilizer has been under $1,000/ton since the fourth week of October 2021 when the price was at $982/ton.

Anhydrous had a four-digit price for 77 consecutive weeks or just short of 20 straight months. The highest price the fertilizer saw during this time was $1,534/ton for the third and fourth week of April 2022.

While the sub-$1,000/ton anhydrous price is still historically expensive, the fact anhydrous, as well as other fertilizers' prices, fell so much in the first quarter of 2023 was striking. I interviewed several fertilizer analysts in late November and early December of 2022 and not a single one thought that by planting time in spring 2023 retail fertilizer prices would be 18% to 35% less expensive from last year at this same time.

A recent Twitter thread between farmers discussed how sitting on your hands and doing nothing in terms of locking in fertilizer prices this winter turned out to be the correct move to obtain lower-priced fertilizer prices. Some debate ensued -- as it always does on social media.

All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 21% lower, MAP is 25% less expensive, potash is 27% lower, UAN32 is 31% less expensive, UAN28 is 33% lower, anhydrous is 35% less expensive and urea is 38% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer prices continue to weaken, but they may be near the bottom, according to a recent report from CoBank. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Apr 18-22 2022 1050 1079 879 1012
May 16-20 2022 1059 1083 878 993
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022 1046 1074 879 961
Jul 11-15 2022 1030 1052 885 861
Aug 8-12 2022 982 1032 881 812
Sep 5-9 2022 952 1009 878 800
Oct 3-7 2022 934 997 869 826
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022 930 981 857 826
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022 926 960 831 795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022 885 891 765 751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 855 865 714 708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 836 834 673 666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 821 812 645 627
Apr 17-21 2023 826 812 643 626
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Apr 18-22 2022 906 1534 631 730
May 16-20 2022 906 1529 634 731
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022 905 1516 630 730
Jul 11-15 2022 904 1449 606 701
Aug 8-12 2022 881 1365 578 678
Sep 5-9 2022 866 1357 579 658
Oct 3-7 2022 813 1390 565 652
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022 759 1426 583 680
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022 753 1416 583 681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022 751 1325 573 679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 754 1237 523 630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 741 1124 470 554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 740 1036 429 514
Apr 17-21 2023 740 995 423 507

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn