DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were down again the second week of April 2023, continuing a trend that has been in place since the beginning of the year, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

All eight of the major fertilizer prices are lower compared to last month with just one fertilizer considerably less expensive. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower once again was anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer was 5% lower compared to last month and had an average price of $1,003 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $821 per ton, MAP $809/ton, potash $642/ton, urea $625/ton, 10-34-0 $740/ton, UAN28 $427/ton and UAN32 $507/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.61/lb.N, UAN28 $0.76/lb.N and UAN32 $0.79/lb.N.

After the war between Russia and Ukraine began, the flow of potash fertilizer was disrupted from leading producers such as Russia and Belarus. This kink in the supply chain is now leading to improved prospects for potash producers from other parts of the world, according to Dow Jones news service.

Potash prices have moderated since the beginning of the war, fertilizer analyst Humphrey Knight from CRU Group told Dow Jones. However, potash prices are still about 28% above the 10-year average preceding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This is leading to more investments in places such as Canada, which typically accounts for about 30% of the total potash production. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash, has plans to increase its operating production capacity in Saskatchewan to 18 million metric tons (mmt) by 2026, up from 15 mmt today.

Knight said that while exports from Belarus are restricted, the country is increasingly finding ways to get potash to the world market either through Russian ports or on rail to China. Over the longer term, production growth from Russia and Belarus is likely to be limited because of restrictions in accessing modern equipment, he said.

All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 22% lower, MAP is 24% less expensive, potash is 27% lower, UAN32 is 31% less expensive, UAN28 is 32% lower, anhydrous is 35% less expensive and urea is 39% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer prices continue to weaken, but they may be near the bottom, according to a recent report from CoBank. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Apr 11-15 2022	1047	1071	875	1017
May 9-13 2022	1059	1083	881	1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	1057	1077	880	977
Jul 4-8 2022	1038	1053	885	866
Aug 1-5 2022	1003	1036	883	812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	952	1022	877	804
Sep 26-30 2022	947	1005	874	812
Oct 24-28 2022	930	986	862	827
Nov 21-25 2022	927	972	841	802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	890	909	790	757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	859	865	721	712
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	838	857	692	686
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	825	821	655	638
Apr 10-13 2023	821	809	642	625
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Apr 11-15 2022	906	1534	630	730
May 9-13 2022	906	1529	634	730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	905	1518	633	731
Jul 4-8 2022	904	1466	609	702
Aug 1-5 2022	892	1387	592	679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	866	1364	576	671
Sep 26-30 2022	861	1380	581	670
Oct 24-28 2022	759	1422	580	678
Nov 21-25 2022	753	1419	583	681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	751	1360	578	681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	755	1238	536	634
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	754	1213	483	572
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	740	1059	428	521
Apr 10-13 2023	740	1003	427	507

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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