DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Anhydrous Again Leads All Eight Major Fertilizer Prices Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Anhydrous again led prices for all eight fertilizers lower. The nitrogen fertilizer was 5% lower the second week of April 2023 compared to last month with an average price of $1,003 per ton. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were down again the second week of April 2023, continuing a trend that has been in place since the beginning of the year, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

All eight of the major fertilizer prices are lower compared to last month with just one fertilizer considerably less expensive. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower once again was anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer was 5% lower compared to last month and had an average price of $1,003 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $821 per ton, MAP $809/ton, potash $642/ton, urea $625/ton, 10-34-0 $740/ton, UAN28 $427/ton and UAN32 $507/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.61/lb.N, UAN28 $0.76/lb.N and UAN32 $0.79/lb.N.

After the war between Russia and Ukraine began, the flow of potash fertilizer was disrupted from leading producers such as Russia and Belarus. This kink in the supply chain is now leading to improved prospects for potash producers from other parts of the world, according to Dow Jones news service.

Potash prices have moderated since the beginning of the war, fertilizer analyst Humphrey Knight from CRU Group told Dow Jones. However, potash prices are still about 28% above the 10-year average preceding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This is leading to more investments in places such as Canada, which typically accounts for about 30% of the total potash production. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash, has plans to increase its operating production capacity in Saskatchewan to 18 million metric tons (mmt) by 2026, up from 15 mmt today.

Knight said that while exports from Belarus are restricted, the country is increasingly finding ways to get potash to the world market either through Russian ports or on rail to China. Over the longer term, production growth from Russia and Belarus is likely to be limited because of restrictions in accessing modern equipment, he said.

All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 22% lower, MAP is 24% less expensive, potash is 27% lower, UAN32 is 31% less expensive, UAN28 is 32% lower, anhydrous is 35% less expensive and urea is 39% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer prices continue to weaken, but they may be near the bottom, according to a recent report from CoBank. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA

Apr 11-15 2022

1047

1071

875

1017

May 9-13 2022

1059

1083

881

1000

Jun 6-Jun 10 2022

1057

1077

880

977

Jul 4-8 2022

1038

1053

885

866

Aug 1-5 2022

1003

1036

883

812

Aug 29-Sep 2 2022

952

1022

877

804

Sep 26-30 2022

947

1005

874

812

Oct 24-28 2022

930

986

862

827

Nov 21-25 2022

927

972

841

802

Dec 19-Dec 23 2022

890

909

790

757

Jan 16-Jan 20 2023

859

865

721

712

Feb 13-Feb 17 2023

838

857

692

686

Mar 13-Mar 17 2023

825

821

655

638

Apr 10-13 2023

821

809

642

625

LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32

Apr 11-15 2022

906

1534

630

730

May 9-13 2022

906

1529

634

730

Jun 6-Jun 10 2022

905

1518

633

731

Jul 4-8 2022

904

1466

609

702

Aug 1-5 2022

892

1387

592

679

Aug 29-Sep 2 2022

866

1364

576

671

Sep 26-30 2022

861

1380

581

670

Oct 24-28 2022

759

1422

580

678

Nov 21-25 2022

753

1419

583

681

Dec 19-Dec 23 2022

751

1360

578

681

Jan 16-Jan 20 2023

755

1238

536

634

Feb 13-Feb 17 2023

754

1213

483

572

Mar 13-Mar 17 2023

740

1059

428

521

Apr 10-13 2023

740

1003

427

507

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn