DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most average retail fertilizer prices were lower the third week of January 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Prices have moved considerably lower in recent weeks.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers are lower in price compared to last month. Of these seven, the prices of six fertilizers were significantly lower, which DTN designates as a change of 5% or more.

Both potash and anhydrous were down 9% compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $721 per ton, while anhydrous had an average price of $1,238/ton.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 were down 7% compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $536/ton, while UAN32 was $634/ton.

Urea was 6% less expensive, and MAP was 5% lower. Urea had an average price of $712/ton, while MAP was at $865/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly lower in price compared to a month earlier. DAP had an average price of $859/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly higher in price compared to last month. 10-34-0 had an average price of $755/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.77/lb.N, anhydrous $0.76/lb.N, UAN28 $0.96/lb.N and UAN32 $0.99/lb.N.

Prices had been trending lower for months, but they've dropped considerably in recent weeks.

But by how much?

Looking back in DTN's fertilizer data, prices for all eight major fertilizers are essentially at the same level they were in the fall of 2021 -- right before the beginning of the run-up in prices, which lasted for a full year and a half.

DAP is now at $859/ton, the lowest price since the second week of December 2021 when the price was at $858/ton. MAP is now at $865/ton, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $863/ton.

Potash is now at $721/ton, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $716/ton. Urea is now at $712/ton, the least expensive it has been since the first week of October 2021 when the price was at $653/ton.

10-34-0 is at $755/ton now, its lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was also at $755/ton. Anhydrous is currently at $1,238/ton, the least-expensive price since -- yes, you guessed it -- the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $1,220/ton.

UAN28 is at $536/ton now, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the average price was at $458/ton. And UAN32 is currently at $634/ton, the lowest price since the second week of October 2021 when the price was at $614/ton.

So, finally, some good news for producers in the retail fertilizer markets, as these are the lowest prices we have seen in roughly 15 months. This is especially true for those farmers who are still in the market for their fertilizer needs for the 2023 growing season.

All fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 1% lower, 10-34-0 is 6% less expensive, both MAP and UAN32 are 7% lower, UAN28 is 8% less expensive, potash is 11% lower, anhydrous 14% less expensive and urea is 22% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

Natural gas prices have dropped in recent months around the world, but the price is still fairly high in California, according to Dow Jones. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook". Here would be those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 17-21 2022	863	932	807	916
Feb 14-18 2022	874	935	815	891
Mar 14-18 2022	970	1001	843	954
Apr 11-15 2022	1047	1071	875	1017
May 9-13 2022	1059	1083	881	1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	1057	1077	880	977
Jul 4-8 2022	1038	1053	885	866
Aug 1-5 2022	1003	1036	883	812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	952	1022	877	804
Sep 26-30 2022	947	1005	874	812
Oct 24-28 2022	930	986	862	827
Nov 21-25 2022	927	972	841	802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	890	909	790	757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	859	865	721	712
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 17-21 2022	800	1433	585	683
Feb 14-18 2022	837	1488	603	703
Mar 14-18 2022	876	1520	610	706
Apr 11-15 2022	906	1534	630	730
May 9-13 2022	906	1529	634	730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	905	1518	633	731
Jul 4-8 2022	904	1466	609	702
Aug 1-5 2022	892	1387	592	679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	866	1364	576	671
Sep 26-30 2022	861	1380	581	670
Oct 24-28 2022	759	1422	580	678
Nov 21-25 2022	753	1419	583	681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	751	1360	578	681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	755	1238	536	634

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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